2030년까지 한국 수입와인 시장의 수요예측 - 시계열 수요예측 모델을 중심으로 -
A Study on Demand Forecasting Model of Korea’s Imported Wine Market by 2030 - Application of Time Series Forecasting Model -
0
조회
0
다운로드
2
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
After the COVID-19 pandemic, Korea’s imported wine market has been rocketing up. At the beginning of the pandemic, Korea‘s wine market had shrunk as well as other counties. However, because of consumer behavior changes such as seeking high quality drinks, home drinking and revenge spending trends, the imported wine market has been writing a new history that this market has never experienced. In fact, Korea wine market was known for the one of matured markets in Asia; therefore no one was expecting such high growth. The purpose of this study is to forecast the size of imported wine market by 2030. And to provide useful information to all related business entities. KITA (Korea International Trade Association)’s 87 time-series data per quarter from Q1 of 2001 to Q3 of 2021 was utilized in this research. The accuracy of model was tested based on value of MAPE. The result of Winters Additive Seasonality Model for the value (MAPE=10.135%) shows that the value size of imported wine market in 2030 will be increased up to USD $1,165,728,000, CAGR=14.38% which is 117% bigger than its size of 2020. On the other hand, the volume of imported wine market (MAPE=9.988%) will be increased up to 92,151,662 tons, CAGR=5.85% which is only 26% bigger than its size of 2020. The result implies that changes of consumer behaviors after the pandemic will dramatically affect entire alcohol market within 10 years. The imported wine consumption is going to occupy over one fifth of total of alcohol market in Korea. And the fine wine market will be increased dominantly as the increase of value is 4.46 times faster than the volume.
Abstract
After the COVID-19 pandemic, Korea’s imported wine market has been rocketing up. At the beginning of the pandemic, Korea‘s wine market had shrunk as well as other counties. However, because of consumer behavior changes such as seeking high quality drinks, home drinking and revenge spending trends, the imported wine market has been writing a new history that this market has never experienced. In fact, Korea wine market was known for the one of matured markets in Asia; therefore no one was expecting such high growth. The purpose of this study is to forecast the size of imported wine market by 2030. And to provide useful information to all related business entities. KITA (Korea International Trade Association)’s 87 time-series data per quarter from Q1 of 2001 to Q3 of 2021 was utilized in this research. The accuracy of model was tested based on value of MAPE. The result of Winters Additive Seasonality Model for the value (MAPE=10.135%) shows that the value size of imported wine market in 2030 will be increased up to USD $1,165,728,000, CAGR=14.38% which is 117% bigger than its size of 2020. On the other hand, the volume of imported wine market (MAPE=9.988%) will be increased up to 92,151,662 tons, CAGR=5.85% which is only 26% bigger than its size of 2020. The result implies that changes of consumer behaviors after the pandemic will dramatically affect entire alcohol market within 10 years. The imported wine consumption is going to occupy over one fifth of total of alcohol market in Korea. And the fine wine market will be increased dominantly as the increase of value is 4.46 times faster than the volume.
참고문헌 (35)
- 고재윤, "레스토랑의 와인이벤트 속성과 만족도에 관한 연구: 서울시내 특1급 호텔을 중심으로", 관광학연구, 31(2), pp.323~337 (2007), 한국관광학회
- "무역통계", 관세청[URL]
- "국세통계", 국세청[URL]
- 김우선, "와인 소비 영향요인에 관한 시계열 분석", 호텔관광연구, 6(3), pp.66~79 (2004)
- 김재석, "계절 ARIMA 모형을 이용한 호텔객실매출액의 예측", 관광연구, 30(2), pp.381~398 (2006)
- 김지형, "한국 수입와인 시장의 최적 수요예측법에 관한 연구 - 시계열 수요예측 모델을 중심으로 -", 호텔관광연구, 18(5), pp.241~260 (2016), 한국호텔관광학회
- "편의점 FLEX. 입이 떡 벌어진다 '요트·다이아몬드·1000만원 와인'" (2021)[URL]
- 민경창, "계절성 ARIMA 모형을 이용한 항공화물 수요예측: 인천국제공항발 유럽항공노선을 중심으로", 대한교통학회지, 31(3), pp.3~18 (2013), 대한교통학회
- 방진식, "국내와인소비시장 수요예측에 관한 연구", 외식경영연구, 4(1), pp.105~123 (2001)
- 배준호, "호텔 식음료 사업의 최적 수요예측 방법에 관한 연구", 관광레저연구, 23(6), pp.119~135 (2011), (사)한국관광레저학회
- 회귀분석과 아리마시계열분석, "송근원", 한국학술정보, ~ (2013)
- 송근석, "결합기법을 이용한 관광수요예측", 관광레저연구, 21(1), pp.183~202 (2009), (사)한국관광레저학회
- 송준모, "계절형 ARIMA-Intervention 모형을 이용한 여행목적 별제주 관광객 수 예측에 관한 연구", 한국데이터정보과학회지, 27(3), pp.725~732 (2016), 한국데이터정보과학회[DOI]
- 심규원, "계절 ARIMA 모형을 이용한 국립공원 탐방수요 예측", 한국산림과학회지, 100(1), pp.124~130 (2011), 한국산림과학회
- 안경모, "ARIMA Intervention Model을 이용한 한국인 관광객의 태국여행수요예측에 관한 연구", 호텔경영학연구, 14(4), pp.273~288 (2005), 한국호텔외식관광경영학회
- 윤설민, "호텔산업의 합리적 수요예측 방법에 관한 연구: 정성적 방법과 정량적 방법 간 예측치의 정확도 비교", 호텔경영학연구, 18(1), pp.1~16 (2009), 한국호텔외식관광경영학회
- 이충기, "관광응용경제학" (2011), 대왕사
- 이충기, "최적 시계열 수요예측 모델선정에 관한 연구", 관광학연구, 31(6), pp.289~311 (2007), 한국관광학회
- 이충기, "BIE Expo 방문객 수요예측: 계량기법과 질적기법의 적용", 관광레저연구, 19(3), pp.263~281 (2007), (사)한국관광레저학회
- 정동빈, "시계열 수요예측 I" (2009), 한나래출판사
- "무역통계", 한국무역협회[URL]
- 한은진, "와인수요의 결정요인 분석 절단된 포아송 모형의 적용", 외식경영연구, 12(1), pp.59~79 (2009), 한국외식경영학회
- 한은진, "와인소비자 수요의 결정요인에 관한 연구", 관광연구, 28(3), pp.59~73 (2013), 대한관광경영학회
- "Asia Wine Buyers’ Conference" (2021)[URL]
- Archer, B. H., "Demand Forecasting in Tourism" (1976), University of Wales Press
- Cho, V., "A comparison of three different approaches to tourist arrivals forecasting", Tourism Management, 24(3), pp.323~330 (2003)
- Chu, F. L., "Forecasting tourism demand in Asian-Pacific countries", Annals of Tourism Research, 25(3), pp.597~615 (1998)
- Chu, F. L., "Forecasting tourism demand : A cubic polynomial approach", Tourism Management, 25(2), pp.209~218 (2004)
- Lewis, C. D., "Industrial and Business Forecasting Methods" (1982), Butterworth
- Lim, C., "Time series forecasts of international travel demand for Australia", Tourism Management, 23(4), pp.389~396 (2002)
- Liu, J. C., "Hawaii tourism to the year 2000 : A Delphi forecast", Tourism Management, 9(4), pp.279~290 (1988)
- Makridakis, S., "The Art and Science : An Assessment and Future Directions", International Journal of Forecasting, 2(1), pp.15~39 (1986)
- Makridakis, S., "Forecasting: Methods and Applications" (1998), Wiley
- McCleary, R., "Applied Time Series Analysis for the Social Sciences" (1980), Sage Publications
- Stephens, B., "Korean wine market is growing", Wines & Vines, 84(1), pp.30~33 (2003)