Effect of Climate on COVID-19 Incidence: A Cross-Sectional Study in Japan
0
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
Background: Effect of meteorological factors such as air temperature, humidity, and sunlight exposure on trans-mission dynamics of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remains controversial. We investigated the asso-ciation of these factors on COVID-19 incidence in Japan.Methods: We analyzed data on reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction confirmed COVID-19 cases for each prefecture (total=47) in Japan and incidence rate was defined as the number of all reported cumulative cases from January 15 to March 17, 2020. Independent variables of each prefecture included three climatic variables (mean values of air temperature, relative humidity, and sunlight exposure), population elderly ratio, and the num-ber of inbound travelers from China during February 2020. Multivariable-adjusted Poisson regression model was constructed to estimate COVID-19 incidence rate ratio (IRR) of independent variables.Results: There was a total of 702 cases during the study period in Japan (population=125, 900,000). Mean±standard deviation values of meteorological variables were 7.12°C±2.91°C for air temperature, 67.49%±7.63% for relative hu-midity, and 46.77±12.55% for sunlight exposure. Poisson regression model adjusted for climate variables showed significant association between the incidence and three climatic variables: IRR for air temperature 0.854 (95% con-fidence interval [CI], 0.804–0.907; P<0.0001), relative humidity 0.904 (95% CI, 0.864–0.945; P<0.0001), and sunlight exposure 0.973 (95% CI, 0.951–0.997; P=0.026).Conclusion: Higher values of air temperature, relative humidity and sunlight exposure were associated with lower incidence of COVID-19. Public health interventions against COVID-19 epidemic in a country should be developed by considering these meteorological factors.
Abstract
Background: Effect of meteorological factors such as air temperature, humidity, and sunlight exposure on trans-mission dynamics of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remains controversial. We investigated the asso-ciation of these factors on COVID-19 incidence in Japan.Methods: We analyzed data on reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction confirmed COVID-19 cases for each prefecture (total=47) in Japan and incidence rate was defined as the number of all reported cumulative cases from January 15 to March 17, 2020. Independent variables of each prefecture included three climatic variables (mean values of air temperature, relative humidity, and sunlight exposure), population elderly ratio, and the num-ber of inbound travelers from China during February 2020. Multivariable-adjusted Poisson regression model was constructed to estimate COVID-19 incidence rate ratio (IRR) of independent variables.Results: There was a total of 702 cases during the study period in Japan (population=125, 900,000). Mean±standard deviation values of meteorological variables were 7.12°C±2.91°C for air temperature, 67.49%±7.63% for relative hu-midity, and 46.77±12.55% for sunlight exposure. Poisson regression model adjusted for climate variables showed significant association between the incidence and three climatic variables: IRR for air temperature 0.854 (95% con-fidence interval [CI], 0.804–0.907; P<0.0001), relative humidity 0.904 (95% CI, 0.864–0.945; P<0.0001), and sunlight exposure 0.973 (95% CI, 0.951–0.997; P=0.026).Conclusion: Higher values of air temperature, relative humidity and sunlight exposure were associated with lower incidence of COVID-19. Public health interventions against COVID-19 epidemic in a country should be developed by considering these meteorological factors.
참고문헌 (20)
- Moriyama M, "Seasonality of respiratory viral infections", Annu Rev Virol, 7, pp.83~101 (2020)
- Yao Y, "No association of COVID-19 transmission with temperature or UV radiation in Chinese cities", Eur Respir J, 55, pp.2000517~ (2020)
- Qi H, "COVID-19 transmission in Mainland China is associated with temperature and humidity : a time-series analysis", Sci Total Environ, 728, pp.138778~ (2020)
- Bashir MF, "Correlation between climate indicators and COVID-19 pandemic in New York, USA", Sci Total Environ, 728, pp.138835~ (2020)
- Gunthe SS, "On the global trends and spread of the COVID-19 outbreak : preliminary assessment of the potential relation between location-specific temperature and UV index", Z Gesundh Wiss (2020)[DOI]
- Wu Y, "Effects of temperature and humidity on the daily new cases and new deaths of COVID-19 in 166 countries", Sci Total Environ, 729, pp.139051~ (2020)
- Ujiie M, "Effect of temperature on the infectivity of COVID-19", Int J Infect Dis, 95, pp.301~303 (2020)
- "Infectious Diseases Society of America guidelines on infection prevention in patients with suspected or known COVID-19" (2020)[URL]
- Casanova LM, "Effects of air temperature and relative humidity on coronavirus survival on surfaces", Appl Environ Microbiol, 76, pp.2712~2717 (2010)
- Chan KH, "The effects of temperature and relative humidity on the viability of the SARS coronavirus", Adv Virol, 2011, pp.734690~ (2011)
- Duan SM, "Stability of SARS coronavirus in human specimens and environment and its sensitivity to heating and UV irradiation", Biomed Environ Sci, 16, pp.246~255 (2003)
- Darnell ME, "Inactivation of the coronavirus that induces severe acute respiratory syndrome, SARSCoV", J Virol Methods, 121, pp.85~91 (2004)
- Rhodes JM, "Editorial : low population mortality from COVID-19 in countries south of latitude 35 degrees North supports vitamin D as a factor determining severity", Aliment Pharmacol Ther, 51, pp.1434~1437 (2020)
- "Vitamin D deficiency in Ireland: implications for COVID‐19: results from the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing" (2020)[URL]
- Jamshidi S, "Global to USA county scale analysis of weather, urban density, mobility, homestay, and mask use on COVID-19", Int J Environ Res Public Health, 17, pp.7847~ (2020)
- Mecenas P, "Effects of temperature and humidity on the spread of COVID-19 : a systematic review", PLoS One, 15, pp.e0238339~ (2020)
- Hamidi S, "Does density aggravate the COVID-19pandemic? : early findings and lessons for planners", J Am Plan Assoc, 86, pp.495~509 (2020)
- "COVID-19 stats: COVID-19 incidence, by urban-rural classification:United States, January 22-October 31, 2020", MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep, 69, pp.1753~ (2020)
- Ranscombe P, "Rural areas at risk during COVID-19 pandemic", Lancet Infect Dis, 20, pp.545~ (2020)
- "Transmission routes of COVID-19 virus in the Diamond Princess Cruise ship" (2020)[URL]