국내 석회석 광산의 한계성평가 모듈 개발
Development of an Evaluation Module for Determining Mine Closure on Domestic Limestone Mine
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초록
광산이 가행되는 과정에서 적절한 폐광시기에 대한 결정은 매우 중요한 문제로 대두된다. 광물의 가격이 하락하여 광산의 수익성이 제로가 되는 경우의 시장 가격을 의미하는 한계광물가격을 도출하기 위해 OPM 모형을 적용하여 해석하고자 하였다. 광산의 가치는 OPM 모형에서 계속적인 가행과 폐광의 두 가지 운영조건하에서 분석되었다. 분석에 사용된 주요 요소는 광산의 잔여수명, 광물의 시장가격과 생산 비용의 변화추이및 할인율이다. 이러한 평가모듈은 Excel 2010 버전을 이용하여 프로그래밍 되었으며, 3개의 국내 노천 석회석광산을 대상으로 하여 프로그램의 적합성을 검증하였다. 분석 결과, 각 광산에 대하여 폐광을 고려해야 할 한계광물가격의 수준을 도출하였으며, 현금흐름할인법에 의해 시간의 흐름과 시장가격의 변동에 의한 광산의 경제성을 평가하였다.
Abstract
During mine operation, determining the optimal time for mine closure would be one of the most important things. As the critical price means the market price of mineral when the profitability of mine reaches zero, the Option Pricing Model(OPM) was adopted to analyze the critical price. The value of mine was assessed under the two options in the OPM, which are operating and abandoning. The major input factors for the OPM analysis were remaining mine life, fluctuation trend of market price of mineral, operating cost of mine and discount rate. An evaluation module containing the overall sequences was programmed and was applied to the three domestic open-pit limestone mines to verify its applicability. The critical market price of mineral for mine closure was analyzed. And the economic evaluation was executed in accordance with the fluctuation of market prices of mineral using DCF method for the three test mines.
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