생산천이분석을 이용한 Eagle Ford 셰일 저류층의 다단계 수압파쇄 설계 개선 연구
Study for Improvement of Multi-stage Hydraulic Fracturing Design for Eagle Ford Shale Reservoir Using Rate Transient Analysis
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초록
다단계 수압파쇄 기술은 셰일과 같은 치밀 저류층에 부존하는 석유자원의 상업적인 개발을 위해 널리 적용 하는 검증된 방법이다. 셰일 저류층의 공당 생산성은 적용된 수압파쇄 설계에 따라 달라지기 때문에 이에 대한 개선방 안 마련은 셰일 저류층 개발업계가 지속적으로 도출해 나가야할 과제이다. 이 연구에서는 미국 Eagle Ford 셰일 저류 층을 대상으로 다단계 수압파쇄 적용으로 발생하는 균열대 분포를 예측하고 이에 의한 생산능력의 영향을 분석하기 위해 생산천이분석을 활용하였다. 이를 통해 균열대 발달 특성을 규명하고 민감도 분석을 통한 궁극가채량과 상관관 계를 분석함으로써 수압파쇄 설계 개선방안을 도출하였다. 또한 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 적용한 생산천이분석을 통해 셰일 저류층 평가에 내재하는 불확실성을 정량화 하였다.
Abstract
Multi-stage hydraulic fracturing has become common and proved technology to develop tight reservoirs such as shale for commercial production. Since production performance for shale reservoir highly depends on applied hydraulic fracture design, it remains a continuous challenge for the industry for improvement. In this study, rate transition analysis has been performed to estimate fracture geometry by the application of multi-stage hydraulic fracturing and its effect on production performance in U.S. Eagle Ford shale. The improvement of fracturing design has been derived by analyzing the relationship between the characteristics of fracture geometry growth and the effect on EUR(Estimated Ultimate Recovery) by sensitivity analysis. In addition, the uncertainties on both reservoir properties and fracture distributions have been quantified by the probabilistic rate transient analysis using Monte-Calro simulation.
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