비주얼 통계적-2상유동 생산감퇴곡선 분석 모델 개발 및 응용
Development and Application of the Visual Statistical-Two Phase Flow Decline Curve Analysis Model
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초록
In this study, the visual integrated model that is available to predict the future productivity of production well has been developed. This model which is based on conventional decline curve analysis method is for two phase decline curve analysis. This model is composed of three modules. First one is a decline type curve module that can analyze reservoir characteristics such as permeability, skin factor et al. using transient production data. The second is statistical-decline curve module which is able to predict productivity with high confidence level by using production data in depletion stage. The third one is the two phase (oil-water) decline curve module for the future performance of high WOR well. For the utilization of these modules, a user-friendly visual model of the integrated decline curve analysis was developed in this study. In order to validate the developed model, the decline curve analysis on the production data containing large amount of water in SES producing oil field, Indonesia, was carried out. As a results, in case of the well showing a conventional decline curve trend, more reliable prediction could be obtained through the statistical decline curve analysis module. In the analysis of the well producing large amount of water in waterflooded reservoir, the result of decline curve analysis based on two phase flow shows relatively excellent producing performances even though the enhanced production data is not included in the analysis. Also, the radius of investigation, permeability and skin factor at both transient and depletion stage were calculated from the model. It is found that the matching result between actual data and type curves is correct.
Abstract
In this study, the visual integrated model that is available to predict the future productivity of production well has been developed. This model which is based on conventional decline curve analysis method is for two phase decline curve analysis. This model is composed of three modules. First one is a decline type curve module that can analyze reservoir characteristics such as permeability, skin factor et al. using transient production data. The second is statistical-decline curve module which is able to predict productivity with high confidence level by using production data in depletion stage. The third one is the two phase (oil-water) decline curve module for the future performance of high WOR well. For the utilization of these modules, a user-friendly visual model of the integrated decline curve analysis was developed in this study. In order to validate the developed model, the decline curve analysis on the production data containing large amount of water in SES producing oil field, Indonesia, was carried out. As a results, in case of the well showing a conventional decline curve trend, more reliable prediction could be obtained through the statistical decline curve analysis module. In the analysis of the well producing large amount of water in waterflooded reservoir, the result of decline curve analysis based on two phase flow shows relatively excellent producing performances even though the enhanced production data is not included in the analysis. Also, the radius of investigation, permeability and skin factor at both transient and depletion stage were calculated from the model. It is found that the matching result between actual data and type curves is correct.
참고문헌 (10)
- Arps, J. J., "“Analysis of Decline Curves,” SPE 954228-G issued as T. P. 1785 in Petroleum Technology", ~ (1944)
- Baker, R. O., "Using Decline Curves to Forecast Waterflooded Reservoir: Modeling Result", Petroleum Society 2003-163, presented at the Petroleum Society of Canadian International Petroleum Conference, pp.10~12 (2003)
- Cheng, Y., "Practical Application of a Probabilistic Approach to Estimate Reserves Using Production Decline Data", presented at the ATCE of SPE, pp.9~12
- Fekkane, A., "Application of Decline Curve Analysis Technique in Oil Reservoir Using A Universal Fitting Equation", SPE 70036, presented at the SPE Permian Basin Oil And Gas Recovery Conference, pp.15~16 (2001)
- Fetkovich, M. J., "Decline Curve Analysis Using Type Curves-Case Histories", pp.16~19 (1984)
- Jochen, V. A., "Probabilistic Reserves Estimation Using Analysis with the Bootstrap Method", pp.6~9 (1996)
- Li, K., "A Decline Curve Analysis Model Based on Fluid Flow Mechanisms", pp.19~24 (2003)
- Lo, K. K., "A Study of the Post-Breakthrough Characteristics of Waterfloods", pp.4~6
- McNulty, R. R., "Statistical Decline Curve Analysis", pp.5~7 (1981)
- Spivey, J. P., "A New Algorithm for Hyperbolic Decline Curve Fitting", pp.18~20 (1986)