천부가스전 생산운영조건 선정을 위한 경제성 분석 연구
An Economic Analysis of Production and Operation Planning in Shallow Gas
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초록
최근 신규 가스전 발견이 줄어들고, 가스 수요가 증가함에 따라 천부가스 개발에 대한 관심이 증가하고 있다. 천부가스는 심부가스에 비해 개발 사례가 적기 때문에 사업의 경제성을 결정하는 저류층 물성과 경제성 평가 인자들의 불확실성에 대한 연구가 필요하다. 이 연구에서는 천부가스 부존 지역의 특성을 반영한 저류층 모델을 구축하여생산운영조건에 따른 생산성 분석을 통해 매장량 및 경제성을 평가하였다. 또한, 민감도 분석을 수행하여 생산성에대한 저류층 물성의 영향을 확인하였으며, 경제성 평가 시 각 변수의 영향을 파악하였다. 이 연구 결과는 향후 국내 천부가스 개발을 위한 운영조건 선정 시 기초자료로 활용할 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.
Abstract
As the demand for gas increases while the discovery of new gas fields has decreased, interest in the development of shallow gas has recently increased. Since there are fewer cases of shallow gas development than that of deep gas, it is necessary to investigate the uncertainty of the reservoir properties and economic analysis factors that determines the economic feasibility of the project. This study established a reservoir model reflecting characteristics of the shallow gas reservoir to evaluate reserves and economic feasibility by analyzing productivity according to production operating conditions. In addition, sensitivity analysis was performed to confirm the effect of the reservoir properties on productivity, and the impact of each variable was identified in the economic analysis. The results could be used as fundamental data in planning production operating conditions for shallow gas in Korea.
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