한미동맹의 장래: 향후 5년간의 전망과 과제

Abstract

The New Asia Research Institute (NARI) conducted a research project on the prospects and challenges confronting the ROK-U.S. alliance based on a grant from the Jinro Cultural Foundation. This summary highlights the main findings of the study which was published on May 31, 2008. The inauguration of the Lee Myung-Bak administration in February 2008 ushered in a new era in Korean-American relations after a decade of center-left governments. The new government emphasized the reconsolidation of the ROK-U.S. alliance as one of the central tenets of its foreign policy and to this end, President Lee and President Bush announced the launching of a so-called “ROK-U.S. Strategic Alliance for the 21st Century” during their Washington summit in April 2008. Despite such developments, however, the alliance confronts a series of hurdles and challenges that are likely to require sustained attention from the highest levels of the two governments. Although it is nearly impossible to forecast key strategic developments over the next five years, the prevailing security environment not only on the Korean Peninsula but more generally throughout the international system, is likely to become increasingly uncertain and potentially volatile owing to a combination of factors. Some of the more salient macro strategic trends include the longer-term effects on the international system by on-going operations in Iraq, the rise of China and correspondingly growing influences, Japan’s more robust foreign policy forays, the resurgence of Russia, the globalization of international terrorism, and North Korea’s potentially more aggressive threat postures. If the majority of these trends materialize over the ensuing five years, the ROK’s overall security situation cannot but be affected including the co-management of the ROK-U.S. alliance. One of the key legacies of South Korea’s leftward shift over the past decade was the recalibration of South Korea on the part of the United States. To be sure, the inauguration of the Lee Myung-Bak Administration signals an important turn in Washington’s perception of South Korea as a vital ally in the Asia-Pacific region. Nevertheless, the relentless emphasis on inter-Korean détente came about at the expense of a more robust and consolidated ROK-U.S. alliance and one could argue that the new government’s core priorities should be focused on strengthening the rationale for maintaining the ROK-U.S. alliance. In this regard, it is imperative for the new government to provide a 21st century rationale for sustaining the alliance. At the same time, efforts must be made to strengthening the ROK-U.S. joint defense posture as the ROK prepares to assume wartime operational control by 2012. Last but not least, Seoul and Washington should announce a so-called “ROK-U.S. New Security Statement” at an appropriate time to lay the foundation for a more forward looking and strategically beneficial alliance.