중국의 석유안보전략과 중국위협론
China’s Oil Security Strategy and the China Threat
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많은 학자들은 중국의 부상을 기존 국제정치질서에 대한 ‘위협’으로 간주한다. 머지않아 중국이 미국의 패권에 도전할 것이며 양국관계는 결국 노골적인 경쟁과 갈등국면으로 발전할 것이라는 예측들 또한 쏟아지고 있다. 이 논문은 석유안보를 중심으로 이러한 중국위협론을 분석한다. 석유안보가 중국에 가지는 중요성과 그에 따른 공격적 석유확보 전략을 살펴보면, 미중 양국 간의 갈등이나 충돌을 야기할 수 있는 요소는 다분하다. 하지만 그러한 갈등요소에도 불구하고, 중국이 향후 15년 정도의 예측할 수 있는 미래에 석유안보 영역에서 미국에 직접적으로 도전할 가능성은 낮은 것으로 보인다. 석유에 관한 한 중국이 미국보다 상대적으로 더 취약하고, 중국의 석유 해양수송로에 대한 미국의 지배가 당분간 계속될 것이기 때문이다. 따라서 이 논문은 중국이 적어도 석유안보 영역에서는 미국주도의 질서를 인정하고, 미국과의 직접적인 갈등이나 충돌을 피하면서 수입원을 다변화하고 접근성 확대를 시도하는 방식으로 자국의 석유안보를 추구해 나갈 것이라 예측한다.
Abstract
Scholars of international politics have argued that the rapid “rise of China” will become a threat to the US-dominant international order. This paper focuses on oil security and analyzes the “China threat” argument. It finds that China, dependent on oil for its economy, heavily and increasingly reliant on oil imports, and faced with domestic political challenges, puts oil security at the top of its national security priority list. As a result, China is in a desperate pursuit of oil, seeking to diversify import sources regardless of regime type. This aggressive oil security strategy creates the danger of conflict between China and the U.S., the biggest oil importer that pursues oil security as part of its comprehensive international security strategy. However, the chance of serious Sino-American conflict over oil security in the foreseeable future is dim. China’s high oil vulnerability and U.S. dominance of key maritime oil transportation route means that it is logical for China to avoid conflict with the U.S. This paper argues that, despite the “China threat” argument, the status quo is the most likely future of the Sino-American relationship regarding oil security for the foreseeable future.
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