북학의 제3차 핵외교의 시작과 일본의 과제
North Korea’s Third Nuclear Diplomacy and the Challenges to Japan
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Abstract
North Korea is embarking on yet another round of nuclear diplomacy in an attempt to normalize relations with the United States. There are three major diplomatic cards on the negotiating table between North Korea and the United States: the nuclear issue, the missile issue, and the issue of signing a peace treaty or agreement. North Korea announced that it would begin enriching uranium and had decided to build its own light water reactors. This announcement was significant for two reasons. First, it meant North Korea would be willing to negotiate on the program. Second, it highlighted North Korea’s continued interest in a light water reactor. Regarding the missiles, North Korea characterized the Taepo Dong 2 launched in April as a satellite launch vehicle, but remained silent about Scud and No Dong missiles launched in July. It seems to be dividing the missile issue into two parts again: a missile issue and a “satellite” issue. It will likely seek two separate deals on missiles based on such a distinction. Though less visible than nuclear and missile tests, North Korea has already been taking measures to put on the table the issue of replacing the Armistice Agreement with a peace agreement. At the request of the Korean People’s Army (KPA), the General-Officers’ Talks between the United Nations Command and the KPA reconvened in March 2009 for the first time since 2002. The General-Officers’ Talks is the most important administrative body to deal with Armistice-related issues. Even after the missile and nuclear tests, the United States has expressed willingness to engage with North Korea. The United States is willing to address not only nuclear and missile issues, but also signing a peace treaty with North Korea. Japanese security response to North Korea’s nuclear and missile development is twofold: improvement in ballistic missile defense (BMD) and civil defense capabilities. However, Japan has yet to find diplomatic means of resolving North Korea’s nuclear and missile issues.
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