미·중 신형 대국관계와 한반도

Abstract

In East Asia, one of the most important problems for regional states is geostrategic uncertainty. The order based on ‘hub-and-spoke’ security relations in East Asia is in transition, moving toward a regional great power rivalry in the midst of cooperation between the two major countries, the U.S. and China. How the U.S. rebalancing strategy and China’s ‘new type of major country relations’ will interact will greatly impact the security architecture in Northeast Asia in general and on the Korean Peninsula in particular. The relationship between the U.S. and China may vary depending on issue. Maritime security in Northeast Asia is one of the most important issue areas of the relationship. The paper argues that changing relations between the U.S. and China will be a key factor in reshaping international order in East Asia. It is also argues that the North Korea nuclear issue could be a litmus test for building ‘the new type of major country relations’ between the U.S. and China if North Korea conducts another nuclear test. The Six Party Talks mechanism for the North Korean nuclear issue has a long way to go to become effective. A minilateral cooperative mechanism needs to be established as an interim measure. A trilateral security dialogue between the ROK, the U.S. and China would be a good example and could promote regional security cooperation as a stepping stone toward a region-wide security cooperation mechanism. A minilateral security mechanism for crisis prevention for maritime security is also needed.