기름가자미 어업관리방안 평가를 위한 생물경제학적 분석 - 동해구외끌이중형저인망어업을 대상으로 -
A bioeconomic analysis on evaluation of management policies for Blackfin flounder Glyptocephalus stelleri - In the case of eastern sea danish fisheries -
0
조회
0
다운로드
1
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
본 연구에서는 기름가자미 자원평가를 위해 Bayesian State-space 모델 활용하여 기름가자미의 자원상태를 평가 하였다. 또한 어업관리방안들에 대한 효과분석을 통해 효과적은 어업관리방안의 제시 및 선택을 하고자 하였다. Bayesian State-space 모델 사용하여 분석한 결과, 기름가자미의 주요생물계수 값은 MSY는 1,985톤, K는 23,930톤 q는 0.000007765그리고 r은 0.31로 분석되었다. 효과적인 어업관리방안의 선택 및 제시를 위해 생물경제모델을 활용하여 분석하였다. TAC 정책의 생물학적 효과분석 결과, 현재 수준과 같이 1,761톤으로 설정되어 지속된다면 기름가자미 자원량이 20년 후에는 14,637톤으로 유지하는 추세로 평가되었다. 하지만 기름가자미 TAC설정이 1,600톤으로 설정할 경우 향후 16,252톤으로 자원량은 증가되는 것으로 추정되었다. 어획노력량 저감 정책의 생물학적 효과분석 결과, 현재 어획노력량(현재hp) 수준으로 설정되어 지속될 경우 기름가자미 자원량이 13,776톤으로 유지하는 추세로 평가되었다. 하지만 어획노력량을 20% 감소시킬 경우 향후 17,091톤으로 증가하는 것으로 분석되었다. TAC 정책의 경제학적 효과분석 결과, TAC 물량 2,500톤 설정 시 20년 후인 2038년 NPV는 1,486,410천원으로 가장 낮은 수준으로 분석되었다. 하지만 TAC를 2,000톤으로 설정시, NPV는 2,206,522천원으로 가장 높은 것으로 추정되었다. 어획노력량 저감 정책의 경제학적 효과분석 결과, 현재 어획노력량 수준으로 유지되면 20년 후인 2038년 NPV는 2,235,592천원으로 수준으로 분석되었다. 하지만 어획노력량을 10% 증가시킬 경우 NPV는 2,257,575천원으로 가장 높은 수준으로 분석되지만, 생물학적 측면에서는 자원량이 감소하는 것으로 분석되었다.
Abstract
In this study, the Bayesian state-space model was used for the stock assessment of the Blackfin flounder. In addition, effective measures for the resource management were presentedwith the analysis on the effectiveness of fisheries management plans. According to the result of the analysis using the Bayesian state-space model, the main biometric value of Blackfin flounder was analyzed as 1,985 tons for maximum sustainable yield (MSY), 23,930 tons for carrying capacity (K), 0.000007765 for catchability coefficient (q) and 0.31 for intrinsic growth (r). Also the evaluation on the biological effect of TAC was done. The result showed that the Blackfin flounder biomass will be kept at 14,637 tons 20 years later given the present TAC volume of 1,761 tons. If the Blackfin flounder TAC volume is set to 1,600 tons, the amount of biomass will increase to 16,252 tons in the future. Lastly, the biological effectiveness of the policy to reduce fishing effort was assessed. The result showed that the Blackfin flounder biomass will be maintained at 13,776 tons if the current fishing efforts (currently hp) level is set and maintained. If the fishing effort is reduced by 20%, it will increase to 17,091 tons in the future. The analysis on the economic effect of TAC showed that NPV will be the lowest at 1,486,410 won in 2038, 20 years after the establishment of 2,500 tons of TAC volume. If the TAC volume is set at 2,000 tons, NPV was estimated to be the highest at 2,206,522,000 won. In addition, the analysis on the economic effect of the policy to reduce the amount of fishing effort found that NPV will be 2,235,592,000 won in 2038, 20 years after maintaining the current level of fishing effort. If the fishing effort is increased by 10%, NPV will be the highest at 2,257,575 won even thoughthe amount of biomass will be reduced.
참고문헌 (29)
- Bolker BM, "Ecological models and data in R", pp.233~242 (2008), Princeton University Press
- Chaloupka M, "Using Bayesian state-space modelling to assess the recovery and harvest potential of the Hawaiian green sea turtle stock", Ecol Mmodel, 205, pp.93~109 (2007)
- 최지훈, "기름가자미 어업관리를 위한 생물경제학적 분석", 수산해양기술연구, 52(4), pp.394~402 (2016), 한국수산해양기술학회[DOI]
- 최민제, "서해 어획대상 잠재생산량 추정을 위한 자원평가모델의 비교 분석", 수산해양기술연구, 55(3), pp.206~216 (2019), 한국수산해양기술학회[DOI]
- Davis JC, "Rebuilding fisheries : Challenges for fisheries managers", The Economics of Rebuilding Fisheries Workshop Proceedings, pp.31~43 (2010), OECD
- "The state of world fisheries and aquaculture" (2018)[URL]
- "Fishery Production Statistics" (2018)[URL]
- Fox, "An exponential surplus‐yield model for optimizing exploited fish populations", Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, 99, pp.80~88 (1970)
- Gilks WR, "Adaptive rejection sampling for Gibbs sampling", Applied Statistics, pp.337~348 (1992)
- Haddon M, "Modelling and quantitative methods in fisheries", pp.1~435 (2010), CRC press
- Holland D, "Economic considerations and methods for evaluating fishery rebuilding strategies", The Economics of Rebuilding Fisheries Workshop Proceedings, pp.95~111 (2010), OECD
- "Report of the standing committee on research and statistics (SCRS)" (2008)[URL]
- 김도훈, "도루묵 수산자원회복계획에서의 TAC 정책 평가", 수산경영론집, 46(1), pp.29~39 (2015), 한국수산경영학회[DOI]
- Coastal Fisheries Survey Report, "Korea Fisheries Resources Agency", 99~100, pp.FIRA-ER-18-045 (2018)
- "Fishery production survey" (2018)[URL]
- Lunn DJ, "WinBUGS-a Bayesian modelling framework : concepts, structure, and extensibility", Statistics and computing, 10, pp.325~337 (2000)
- McAllister MK, "Using demographic methods to construct Bayesian priors for the intrinsic rate of increase in the Schaefer model and implications for stock rebuilding", Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 58, pp.1871~1890 (2001)
- McAllister M, "A generalized Bayesian surplus production stock assessment software (BSP2)", Collect Vol Sci Pap ICCAT, 70, pp.1725~1757 (2014)
- Millar RB, "Bayesian state-space modeling of age-structured data : fitting a model is just the beginning", Can J Fish Aquat Sci, 57, pp.43~50 (2000)
- Millar RB, "Non‐linear state space modelling of fisheries biomass dynamics by using Metropolis‐Hastings within‐Gibbs sampling", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 49, pp.327~342 (2000)
- Neal RM, "Markov chain Monte Carlo methods based onslicing' the density function", Department of Statistics, pp.1997
- NIFS, "Resource status of 2019 and restorationrecommendation of fisheries resources in 2020", National Institute of Fisheries Science, 175~ (2019)
- Pella JJ, "A generalized stock production model", Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission Bulletin, 13, pp.416~497 (1969)
- Schaefer, "Some aspects of the dynamics of populations. important to the management of the commercial marine fisheries", Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission Bulletin, 1, pp.23~56 (1954)
- 손명호, "한국 동해안 기름가자미(Glyptocephalus stelleri)의자원평가 및 적정어획량 추정", 한국수산과학회지, 46(5), pp.598~606 (2013), 한국수산과학회[DOI]
- Spiegelhalter D, "WinBUGS user manual, version 1.4", Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit, 60~ (2003)
- Winker H, "JABBA: just another bayesian biomass assessment", Fisher Res, 204, pp.275~288 (2018)