통합생산량분석법에 의한 한국 서해 어획대상 잠재생산량 추정 연구
A study on the estimation of potential yield for Korean west coast fisheries using the holistic production method (HPM)
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초록
본 연구에서는 어업관리에 앞서 선행되어야 하는 어획대상 자원평가를 위해 통합생산량 분석법(HPM)을 사용하여 서해 전체 어획대상 잠재생산량(PY)과 환경수용량(ECC)을 추정하였다. 통합생산량 분석법(HPM)은 서해 전체 어획대상 어종의 어획량과 표준화된 어획노력량 자료를 사용하여 네 가지의 잉여생산량모델에 의해잠재생산량과 환경수용량을 추정하였으며, 추정된 어획대상 잠재생산량과 환경수용량은 각 모델 별로 상이한결과를 나타내었다.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to estimate potential yield (PY) for Korean west coast fisheries using the holistic production method (HPM). HPM involves the use of surplus production models to apply input data of catch and standardized fishing efforts. HPM compared the estimated parameters of the surplus production from four different models: the Fox model, CYP model, ASPIC model, and maximum entropy model. The PY estimates ranged from 174,232 metric tons (mt) using the CYP model to 238,088 mt using the maximum entropy model. The highest coefficient of determination (R2), the lowest root mean square error (RMSE), and the lowest Theil’s U statistic (U) for Korean west coast fisheries were obtained from the maximum entropy model. The maximum entropy model showed relatively better fits of data, indicating that the maximum entropy model is statistically more stable and accurate than other models. The estimate from the maximum entropy model is regarded as a more reasonable estimate of PY. The quality of input data should be improved for the future study of PY to obtain more reliable estimates.
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