논문KCI 등재
조건화와 입증: 조건화 옹호 논증
Conditionalization and Confirmation: A Vindication of Conditionalization
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참고문헌
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초록
본 논문의 목적은 베이즈주의 믿음 갱신 규칙인 조건화를 옹호하는 것이다. 이를 위해서 필자는 경험과 무관한 믿음은 바뀌지 말아야 한다는 무관성 원리를 도입한다. 이 원리를 엄밀하게 정식화한 뒤, 무관성 원리와 조건화가 동치라는 것이 증명된다. 그리고 이 무관성 원리를 베이즈주의 입증 이론을 이용해서 옹호한다. 이를 위해서 필자는 베이즈주의 입증 이론가들이라면 받아들여야 하는 몇 가지 논제들을 제시하고, 무관성 원리를 위반한다면 그 논제들이 만족될 수 없다는 것을 보여준다.
Abstract
The main objective of this paper is to vindicate the Bayesian belief updating rule, i.e. conditionalization. For this purpose, I introduce first what I call Irrelevance Principle, and show that this principle is equivalent to conditionalization. In turn, the principle is vindicated by means of Bayesian confirmation theory. That is, I suggest some theses that Bayesian confirmation theorists should accept, and prove that if Irrelevance Principle is violated, the theses cannot holds.
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