부분링크 관측교통량으로부터의 기종점 통행행렬추정모형 비교 연구
A Comparative Study on Synthetic Origin-Destination Matrix Estimation Methods from Partially-Observed Link Counts
0
조회
0
다운로드
1
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
기종점 통행행렬(O-D Matrix)은 교통계획과 교통운영 분석 등 교통연구 분야 전반에 걸쳐서 필수적인 요소이다. 현장에 설치운영 중인 교통정보수집기기를 통하여 수집한 링크 관측교통량으로부터 보다 정확한 기종점 통행행렬을 추정하기 위하여 지금까지 많은 연구가 수행되어 왔다. 그러나 기존 방법론들은 정확한 대상 도로망 정보와 정확한 사전 기종점 통행행렬(Prior O-D Matrix)에 대한 정보가 주어졌을 때에만 신뢰할 만한 예측력을 나타낸다는 단점이 있다. 즉, 사전정보(Prior Information) 오차에 민감하게 반응하며, 대상 지역의 급격한 토지이용 변화나 모집단 표본설정 오류 또는 링크의 교통량을 관측하는 데 있어 정확한 관측이 이루어지지 않았거나 도로망 중 관측 가능한 링크의 수가 제한적일 때 이러한 불완전한 정보들로부터 기종점 통행행렬을 추정하는 것은 쉽지 않다. 본 연구에서는 종합적이고 동일한 사전정보(Prior Information)의 환경에서 혼잡시 사용가능한 몇몇 모형들을 선정하여 추정력을 비교분석하고, 실험분석 결과를 통하여 최적의 모형을 제시하고자 한다. 본 연구의 실험 결과, 주어진 사전정보(Prior Information)의 형태에 따라 선정한 비교 모형별로 다양한 결과가 도출되었다.
Abstract
The Origin-Destination trip matrix(O-D matrix) is an essential ingredient in a wide variety of travel planing and analysis studies. The O-D matrix estimation from observed link counts has attracted a lot of interests, and various methods have been proposed to obtain O-D matrices based on link counts. Until recently, the most commonly used models are Entropy Maximization, Most Likelihood, Generalize Least Square, Bayesian Estimator. These methods are, however, sensitive to the errors that are associated with the prior O-D informations, and the estimates may not be accurate in some situations, for example, under an abrupt lan-use change, missing data, high sampling errors or partially observed link counts. In this study, we compare with some models which available for congestion load networks in same prior information conditions. The selected models are Turnquist and Gur(1979), Spiess(1990), Nielsen(1998), Cho and Moore(2000), Cho(2008), and Backpropagation.
참고문헌 (41)
- 강정규, "칼만필터를 이용한 도시고속도로 교통량 예측 및 실시간O-D 추정", 대한교통학회지, 14(3), pp.7~26 (1996)
- 김종형, "Gradient 기법에 의한 통행행렬표 추정에 관한 연구", 박사, pp.2000
- 백승걸, "유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 링크 관측교통량으로부터의 기종점 통행행렬 추정", 박사, pp.2001
- 이승재, "Gradient 방법과 일반화 최소자승법을 이용한 관측교통량기반 O", D 추정방법에 관한 예측력 비교평가 연구, 2000, pp.18(2), 41~52[DOI]
- 이승재, "기종점 수요추정을 위한 교통량 관측지점의 적정위치 선정", 대한교통학회지, 21(1), pp.53~63 (2003), 대한교통학회
- 이헌주, "Conjugate Gradient 기법을 이용한 관측교통량 기반 기종점 OD행렬 추정 모형 개발", 대한교통학회지, 22(1), pp.43~61 (2004), 대한교통학회
- 임강원, "교통망분석론" (2003), 서울대학교 출판부
- Caliper, "TransCAD Users Manual" (2004)
- Carey, M., "A Method for Direct Estimation of Origin", Destination Trip Matrices, pp.15(1), 32~49
- Cascetta, E., "Estimation of Trip Matrices from Traffic Counts and Survey Data: A Generalized Least Squares Estimator", Transportation Research Part B, 22(4), pp.289~299 (1984)
- Development of a path flow estimator for deriving steady-state and time-dependent origindestination trip tables, California PATH Research Report, "Chen, A.", California PATH, ~, pp.CA 95616
- 조성길, "A Study on Synthetic OD Estimation Model based on Partial Traffic Volumes and User-Equilibrium Information", 한국ITS학회 논문지, 7(5), pp.180~193 (2008), 한국ITS학회
- Cho, S., "Improved User Equilibrium Based Method for Estimating Trip Tables", Journal of Transportation Engineering, 126(6), pp.492~497 (2000)
- Hanif, D., "Estimation of Origin-Destination Trip-Tables Based on a Partial Set of Traffic Link Volumes", Transportation Research Part B, 37, pp.815~836 (2003)
- Iida, Y., "Traffic demand estimation model by observed link flows considering trend of secular change", Proceedings of JSCE, 387(4), pp.83~91 (1987)
- 2 User's Manual Software Release, "EMME", pp.2003, INRO
- Kim, D., "Normalization Methods for Input and Output Vectors in Backpropagation Neural Networks", International Journal of Computer Mathematics, 71(2), pp.161~171 (1999)
- Kim, D., "Problems Encountered During Implementation of the Backpropagation", ITS Journal, 5(1), pp.71~86 (1999)
- 김대현, "Neural Network-based O-D Matrix Estimation from Link Traffic Counts", 도시과학국제저널, 12(2), pp.146~157 (2008), 도시과학연구원
- Lo, H. P., "Estimation of an Origin-Destination Matrix with Random Link Choice Proportions: A Statistical Approach", Transportation Research Part B, 30, pp.309~324 (1996)
- Maher, M. J., "Inferences on Trip Matrices from Observations on Link Volumes: A Bayesian Statistical Approach", Transportation Research Part B, (17), pp.435~447 (1983)
- Matlab R2009a Users Manual, "Mathwork" (2009)
- Nanda, R., "Estimation of Trip O-D Matrix when Input and Output are Fuzzy. in: Proceedings of ISUMA '93, The Second International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis", pp.104~111 (1993), IEEE Computer Press
- Estimating an O-D Matrix from Network Data: A Network Equilibrium Approach, "Nguyen, S.", Centre de Recherche sur les Transports, University of Montreal, ~ (1977)
- Nguyen, S., "Estimating Origin-Destination Matrices from Observed Flows. in: Transportation Planning Models", pp.363~380 (1984)
- Nielsen O. A., "A New Methods for Estimating Trip Matrices from Counts" (1994), The Technical University of Denmark
- Two New Methods for Estimating Trip Matrices from Traffic Counts, "Nielsen O. A", Travel Behaviour Research: Updating the State of Play, 221~250 (1998)
- Ortúzar, J. de D., "Modeling Transport" (1990), John Wiley & Sons
- Reddy, K. H., "A fuzzy inference based assignment algorithm to estimate O-D matrix from link volume counts", Comput, Environ, and Urban Systems, 22(5), pp.409~423 (1998)
- Sheffi, Y., "Urban Transportation Network: Equilibrium Analysis with Mathematical Programming Methods, Englewood Cliffs" (1985), Prentice Hall
- Spiess H., "A Maximum Likelihood Model for Estimating Origin-Destination Matrices", Transportation Research Part B, 21, pp.395~412 (1987)
- Spiess H., "A Gradient Approach for the O-D Matrix Adjustment Problem" (1990), INRO
- Sushama, C. M., "Estimation of Origin Destination Trip Tables based on a Partial set of Fuzzy Traffic Link volumes and Target Trip Matrix", pp.1~9 (2007), Polytech Univ
- Turnquist M., "Estimation of Trip Tables from Observed Link Volumes", pp.1~6 (1979), Transportation Research Board
- University of Stuttgart, "University of Stuttgart, SNNS User Manual Ver 4.2", ~
- Van Zuylen, H. J., "The Most Likely Trip Matrix Estimation from Traffic Counts", Transportation Research Part, 16(3), pp.281~293 (1980)
- Estimation of an O-D matrix from traffic counts: a review, "Willumsen, L.", University of Leeds, ~, pp.Working Paper 99 (1978)
- Yang, H., "A Neural Network Approach to the Identification of Real Time Origin-Destination Flows from Traffic Counts", International Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications in Transportation Engineering, pp.253~269 (1992)
- Yang H., "Estimation of Origin-Destination Matrices from Link Traffic Counts on Congested Networks", Transportation Research Part B, (25), pp.351~363 (1992)
- Yang, H., "Optimal Traffic Counting Location for Origin-Destination Matrix Estimation", Transportation Research Part B, 32(2), pp.109~126 (1998)
- Yin, Y., "Genetic Algorithm Based Approach for Bilevel Programing Models", Journal of Transportation Engineering, 126(2), pp.115~120 (2000)