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The Constructive Interpretation of Probability

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This essay suggests a constructive interpretation of probabilities by diagnosing problems of the objective and the epistemic interpretations of probability. According to this interpretation, attributions of the mathematical structure of probability to a given system can be understood as positing constructive theoretical hypotheses showing the relationship among empirical data. The constructive interpretation is applied to comprehend probability claims in the explanation of temporal asymmetrical behaviour of our universe. A new approach interpreting probabilities as constructive theoretical terms enables us to circumvent shortcomings of both objective and subjective interpretation of probability, and appreciate why these interpretations nevertheless appear to be convincing in our case.

Abstract

This essay suggests a constructive interpretation of probabilities by diagnosing problems of the objective and the epistemic interpretations of probability. According to this interpretation, attributions of the mathematical structure of probability to a given system can be understood as positing constructive theoretical hypotheses showing the relationship among empirical data. The constructive interpretation is applied to comprehend probability claims in the explanation of temporal asymmetrical behaviour of our universe. A new approach interpreting probabilities as constructive theoretical terms enables us to circumvent shortcomings of both objective and subjective interpretation of probability, and appreciate why these interpretations nevertheless appear to be convincing in our case.

참고문헌 (28)

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  6. Hempel, C., "The Philosophy of Natural Science" (1965), Prentice-Hall
  7. Gillies, D., "Philosophical Theories of Probability" (2000), Routledge
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  14. Penrose, R., "The Road to Reality: A Complete Guide to the Laws of the Universe" (2004), Knopf
  15. Price, H., "Time’s Arrow and Archimedes’ Point: New Directions for the Physics of Time" (1996), Oxford University Press
  16. Price, H., "Boltzmann’s Time Bomb", The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 53, pp.83~119 (2002)
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  19. Sklar, R., "Philosophy of Physics" (1992), Westview Press
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  22. Smolin, L., "The Trouble With Physics: The Rise of String Theory, the Fall of a Science, and What Comes Next" (2006), Houghton Mifflin
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  27. von Plato, J., "Creating Modern Probability: Its Mathematics, Physics and Philosophy in Historical Perspective" (1994), Cambridge University Press
  28. 양경은, "A Third Way to Interpretations of Probability", 논리연구, 13(1), pp.53~81 (2010), 한국논리학회

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