Changing Seasonal Pattern of Suicides in Korea Between 2000 and 2019
2
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
Objective This study aimed to investigate the changing seasonal pattern of suicides in Korea between 2000 and 2019.Methods We calculated a seasonal pattern of suicides between 2000 and 2019 using a non-stationary cosinor model. In addition, we estimated the effect of each month on the suicide incidence compared to a reference month, using a generalized linear model with a categorical variable of the month. Then, we visualized the rate ratio curves of suicides by gender, age group, and subperiod.Results We observed a seasonal pattern of suicides in Korea with a spring peak and a winter trough. The seasonal ups and downs were most pronounced in suicides among the elderly ≥65 years. However, the seasonal pattern has not been consistent over the past two decades, with lowering seasonal peaks since 2012. The amplitude of seasonality was also lower in 2010–2019 than in 2000–2009.Conclusion The seasonal pattern of suicides seems to have diminished in Korea in recent years. Thus, we need further studies to investigate climatic and non-climatic factors influencing the seasonality of suicides and the consequence of the change.
Abstract
Objective This study aimed to investigate the changing seasonal pattern of suicides in Korea between 2000 and 2019.Methods We calculated a seasonal pattern of suicides between 2000 and 2019 using a non-stationary cosinor model. In addition, we estimated the effect of each month on the suicide incidence compared to a reference month, using a generalized linear model with a categorical variable of the month. Then, we visualized the rate ratio curves of suicides by gender, age group, and subperiod.Results We observed a seasonal pattern of suicides in Korea with a spring peak and a winter trough. The seasonal ups and downs were most pronounced in suicides among the elderly ≥65 years. However, the seasonal pattern has not been consistent over the past two decades, with lowering seasonal peaks since 2012. The amplitude of seasonality was also lower in 2010–2019 than in 2000–2009.Conclusion The seasonal pattern of suicides seems to have diminished in Korea in recent years. Thus, we need further studies to investigate climatic and non-climatic factors influencing the seasonality of suicides and the consequence of the change.
참고문헌 (36)
- 김성완, "Suicide, an Urgent Health Issue in Korea", Journal of Korean Medical Science, 28(3), pp.345~347 (2013), 대한의학회
- Lee SU, "Changing trends in suicide rates in South Korea from 1993 to 2016: a descriptive study", BMJ Open, 8, pp.e023144~ (2018)
- "Suicide death statistics"[URL]
- "Suicide rates (2019)"[URL]
- "Suicide death statistics by sex and age group"[URL]
- Jeon HJ, "Lifetime prevalence and correlates of suicidal ideation, plan, and single and multiple attempts in a Korean nationwide study", J Nerv Ment Dis, 198, pp.643~646 (2010)
- 김성완, "자살시도 위험요인 및 자살에 대한 태도 연구", 신경정신의학, 49(4), pp.367~373 (2010), 대한신경정신의학회
- Ajdacic-Gross V, "Seasonality in suicide--a review and search of new concepts for explaining the heterogeneous phenomena", Soc Sci Med, 71, pp.657~666 (2010)
- Woo JM, "Seasonality of suicidal behavior", Int J Environ Res Public Health, 9, pp.531~547 (2012)
- 조철현, "Why Do Mania and suicide occur Most often in the spring?", PSYCHIATRY INVESTIGATION, 15(3), pp.232~234 (2018), 대한신경정신의학회[DOI]
- Lee HJ, "Circadian misalignment and bipolar disorder", Chronobiol Med, 1, pp.132~136 (2019)
- Ajdacic-Gross V, "Diversity and change in suicide seasonality over 125 years", J Epidemiol Community Health, 59, pp.967~972 (2005)
- Ajdacic-Gross V, "Seasonal associations between weather conditions and suicide--evidence against a classic hypothesis", Am J Epidemiol, 165, pp.561~569 (2007)
- Florido Ngu F, "Correlating heatwaves and relative humidity with suicide (fatal intentional selfharm)", Sci Rep, 11, pp.22175~ (2021)
- Bramness JG, "Analyzing seasonal variations in suicide with Fourier Poisson time-series regression: a registry-based study from Norway, 1969-2007", Am J Epidemiol, 182, pp.244~254 (2015)
- Yip PS, "A re-examination of seasonal variation in suicides in Australia and New Zealand", J Affect Disord, 47, pp.141~150 (1998)
- Yip PS, "Seasonal variation in suicides: diminished or vanished. Experience from England and Wales, 1982-1996", Br J Psychiatry, 177, pp.366~369 (2000)
- "Temperature trend"[URL]
- Jee HJ, "Solar radiation increases suicide rate after adjusting for other climate factors in South Korea", Acta Psychiatr Scand, 135, pp.219~227 (2017)
- Yang SB, "Seasonal variation of relationship between climate and suicide attempts", Chronobiol Med, 2, pp.67~71 (2020)
- Yang CT, "Seasonal changes in suicide in South Korea, 1991 to 2015", PLoS One, 14, pp.e0219048~ (2019)
- Yu J, "Seasonality of suicide: a multi-country multi-community observational study", Epidemiol Psychiatr Sci, 29, pp.e163~ (2020)
- "Deaths by cause"[URL]
- Barnett AG, "Analysing seasonal data", R Journal, 4, pp.5~10 (2012)
- "Season: seasonal analysis of health data (package source: season 0.3.13)"[URL]
- Barnett AG, "Analysing seasonal health data (vol. 30)" (2010), Springer
- Akkaya-Kalayci T, "The effect of seasonal changes and climatic factors on suicide attempts of young people", BMC Psychiatry, 17, pp.365~ (2017)
- White RA, "Does suicide have a stronger association with seasonality than sunlight?", BMJ Open, 5, pp.e007403~ (2015)
- Brenner B, "Positive association between altitude and suicide in 2584 U.S. counties", High Alt Med Biol, 12, pp.31~35 (2011)
- "Sunshine duration trend"[URL]
- Geoffroy PA, "Seasonality and bipolar disorder:a systematic review, from admission rates to seasonality of symptoms", J Affect Disord, 168, pp.210~223 (2014)
- Øverland S, "Seasonality and symptoms of depression: a systematic review of the literature", Epidemiol Psychiatr Sci, 29, pp.e31~ (2019)
- Park Seon-Cheol, "“Suicide CARE” (Standardized Suicide Prevention Program for Gatekeeper Intervention in Korea): An Update", PSYCHIATRY INVESTIGATION, 17(9), pp.911~924 (2020), 대한신경정신의학회[DOI]
- Chang SS, "Was the economic crisis 1997-1998 responsible for rising suicide rates in East", Southeast Asia? A time-trend analysis for Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand, 2009, pp.68, 1322~1331
- Kim JH, "The werther effect of two celebrity suicides: an entertainer and a politician", PLoS One, 8, pp.e84876~ (2013)
- Burke M, "Higher temperatures increase suicide rates in the United States and Mexico", Nat Clim Change, 8, pp.723~729 (2018)