북한 핵개발 전략과 그 지정학적 함의

Abstract

This article tries to probe the background and purpose of the North Korean nuclear strategy against the United States and illuminate the geo-political situations which make it possible for North Korea to pursue its current nuclear strategy. The debacle and collapse of the eastern socialist states in the early 1990s posed a great threat to the survival of North Korea. Faced with the diplomatic isolation and the serious internal economic problems, North Korea has found itself fallen into the very grave dilemma. Namely, North Korea should avoid the road to “Reform and Opening” as long as possible if it wants to preserve its inherited political system. But North Korea desperately needs outside-help if it wants to overcome diplomatic isolation and economic hardship. As a way to escape from this dilemma, North Korea has tried to develop its nuclear pro- grams. North Korea believed that the nuclear programs might help to not only deter the threat to the preservation of its political system but also enforce the economic aids from the concerned and relevant states. The missile programs have also strengthened the strategic value of North Korean nuclear development efforts. North Korean missiles can reach to the greater parts of North East Asia. The combination of nuclear war heads and long-range missiles is surely a great military menace to the United States and its allies. North Korea has tried to keep South Korea and Japan, the key allies to the Unites States in North East Asia, within the shooting ranges of its missiles so that it can greatly increase the costs of the possible military action of the U.S. and its allies against its territory. North Korea has also made most use of its geo-political advantage that the friendly and socialist China is bordering on its soil. From the standpoints of the United States, the North Korean missiles can not be overlooked. North Korea has not only exported its missiles to other countries but also engaged in nuclear war head developments for decades. Therefore, the United States has strongly objected to the North Korean missile and nuclear programs. The United States is also faced with a dilemma. Military action against North Korea is surely one option that the U.S. can take. But the provision of some economic aids and security guarantee to North Korean regime in return for the abandonment of nuclear and missile programs can be another option to the United States. Considering its long-term effects, the North Korean nuclear development efforts can not be a good strategy because it can never solve the fundamental and structural problems that North Korea has been facing with. However, it can be evaluated as a good situational and tactical strategy which has made best use of the North Korean geo-political advantages.