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북한 미사일 사태와 한반도 평화

North Korean Missiles and Peace of the Korean Peninsula

조민
극동문제연구소 (THE INSTITUTE FOR FAR EASTERN STUDIES)|2006.09|한국과 국제정치 (Korea and World Politics)|제22권 제3호|pp. 73-104

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참고문헌

주제분류정치외교학

초록

Abstract

North Korea's July 5 multiple missile firing was seen as a serious threat to the peace and security in the Korean peninsula and the Northeast Asian region. North Korea aimed, among other things, to find a way to get through the US financial sanctions. While China is widely regarded as the country able to exert an influence on North Korea, it worries about the possible collapse of North Korea that in turn leads to high tension in the Northeast Asian region. The US sees making any concession to North Korea as undesirable, because it may give ill message to Iran. Three types of scenarios can be in order regarding North Korea's nuclear weapons program. Scenario Ⅰ assumes the situation where international pressure on North Korea is strengthening. In this case, no deal could be made while tension is increasing. Scenario Ⅱ posits some kind of 'regime change' in North Korea. In this scenario, the US and China may strike a big deal on North Korea. Scenario Ⅲ seeks to achieve 'regime evolution' in North Korea. It is likely that 'North Korean problem' is treated between Scenario Ⅰ and Scenario Ⅱ.

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