한반도 정전체제 : 등장, 구조, 특성, 변환

Abstract

With the end of the Korean War, the system of 1953 has conclusively begun on the Korean peninsula. It was an actual beginning of the post-Korean War system there as a Korean completion of the global cold war. As a core of the de facto East Asian Yalta System, the system was a product of political compromise between the USA and the USSR in the process of ending the Korean War. Therefore, the system of 1953 was an outpost of the global confrontation, and also a sort of the East Asian balance of power system, not just confined within the Korean peninsula. The system of 1953 showed the world some unique peculiarities or historical exceptionality. Firstly, it showed us relatively long stability and symmetric parity during the cold war period between South and North Korea, Japan and China, and America and the Soviet Union. Secondly, one of the most distinctive features was so called a symbiotic antagonism or antagonistic interdependence between the two Koreas. The two divided countries surprisingly fed up each other based not on cooperation but on antagonism. It was an offspring of the mutual mirror image effect of the two. Third feature was a long continuation of the “system of cease-fire agreement” as an international modus vivendi. The long durability and stability of this modus vivendi system was so exceptional in the history of cold war. Fourth one was a regional and international nature of the 1953 system. It was a three-folded structure in nature — national, regional and international confrontation. This multi-storied architecture resulted in the relative stability and constancy. Fifth, the huge scale of the armed forces of the two divided countries. The De-Militarized Zone (DMZ) was changed into the Most-Militarized Zone (MMZ) in the world. Due to the scale of the forces in a narrow territory, no one could start the war to break the ‘international’ demarcation. Finally the continuation of the inflexible bilateral relations among the related countries was also a very unique feature in Northeast Asia. There has been no one collective security or multilateral organization there during the cold war era. All of the other regions have had the regional collective defense organizations or communities. I named this uniqueness as a “Northeast Asian exceptionalism.” With the demise of the socialist bloc, the cold war system on the Korean peninsula was greatly changed, but not fundamentally. First of all, the global cold war as a cause of the Korean division came to an end. Especially South Korea normalized diplomatic relations with the two patron countries of the North, China and Russia. Therefore the foreign relations of the two were significantly transformed from symmetric to asymmetric ones. The beginning of the multilateral talks on the Korean problem, for example 6 party talks for North Korea’s nuclear weapon issue, was also a great change in the post-cold war era. On the dimension of inter-Korean relations, striking growth of the inter-Korean visiting and economic cooperation after the June Summit in 2000 demonstrated the gradual demise of the cold war system there. On the functionalinstitutional level of managing and supervising the cease-fire agreement, after the collapse of the cold war it was almost completely collapsed. Except only the article of military demarcation line, almost all of the agreement have not been and not being observed by the two Koreas. On this level, it did not work any longer. On the internal dimension, as viewing from the moderate North Korea policy and the making of Law of inter-Korean Relations Development of South Korea, the cold war mentality and system of dichotomy s being gradually fallen down. Democratization and economic development of South Korea initiated the structural change of the cold war system on the Korean peninsula.