새만금사업 환경영향공동조사단의 새만금 간척사업에 대한 경제적 타당성 평가의 재평가

Abstract

While wetland economics pursues the balance between the marginal benefits of protecting and converting wetlands, more appropriate evaluations of those benefits are often limited. The paper notes that the analysis of the benefits and costs from the Saemankum reclamation project appraised by its (Saemankum) Research Council can be altered substantially through a reappraisal of certain economic assumptions and procedures. The paper finds that the Council tends to overstate benefits and understate costs and that its analysis misleads the project that would not be feasible if "proper" evaluation techniques were employed. The critical issues include several benefits and costs such as food security benefits, the value of national land expansion, the increases of property values around the development areas, the functional values of rice paddy ecosystems, water improvement benefits, and the costs of wetland loss(commercial fisheries, waste treatment, ecotourism and non-use value). The paper attempts to reevaluate the project with the dominant opinion of the economics profession and a critical view of the Council's analysis. The results differ significantly from those presented by the Council. Even under the most conservative approach, the IRR is 0.818. In the case of more severe assumptions the IRR falls to 0.589. In conclusion, the project has been designated as "justified" on the basis of unrealistic choices of criteria and parameter values.