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Eastern Enlargement of the EU and Reform of its Common Agricultural Policy

고종환
한국유럽학회 (The Korean Society Of Contemporary European Studies)|2005.09|유럽연구 (The Journal of Contemporary European Studies)|제21호|pp. 137-174

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유럽연합영향분석European Union연산일반균형모형CGE Model공동농업정책동구확대Eastern Enlargementthe CAPand Impact Analysis
주제분류지역학

초록

EU의 공동농업정책은 1962년 시작되어 초기에는 매우 성공적으로 농산물의 생산과 농가소득의 증대에 기여하였으나, 점차 농산물의 과잉생산 및 예산에 과중한 부담을 안겨주게 되어 여러 차례 개혁되어 왔다. 특히 2004년 5월 1일 이루어진 중동유럽 10개국의 EU 가입에 대비하여 매우 큰 변화를 격게 되었다. 이러한 배경에서 본 연구에서는 EU의 공동농업정책이 지금까지 어떻게 개혁되어 왔는가를 Mansholt계획안, MacSharry개혁안, Agenda 2000 및 2003년도 농업개혁안을 토대로 살펴보고, 특히 최근 이루어진 Agenda 2000 및 2003년도 농업개혁안이 기존 EU 15개국과 신규 10개 가입국 및 한국 경제에 어떠한 영향을 미칠 것인가 연산일반균형(CGE)모형을 이용하여 분석하였다. 미시차원에서는 모든 분석대상 국가의 산업별 생산 및 농업의 생산요소가격에 미치는 영향과 거시차원에서는 실질GDP 및 국민후생에 미치는 영향을 구체적으로 살펴보았다.

Abstract

The aim of the CAP of the EU is to provide farmers with a reasonable standard of living and consumers with quality food at fair prices. The way in which these aims are met has changed over the years since its inception. The CAP has gone through several reforms: the Mansholt Plan, the MacSharry Reform of 1992, Agenda 2000, and the Reform of 2003. In particular, the enlargement of the EU to include 10 Central and Eastern European countries on 1 May 2004 has offered new and important opportunities for the development of European agriculture and the CAP reform. In this backdrop, the history of reforms of the CAP, including the Mansholt Plan, the MacSharry Reform, Agenda 2000 and the Reform of 2003is described in short and a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used in order to answer the following questions: What economic effects are the eastern enlargement of the EU and the reforms of the CAP to have on the 15 old members of the EU and its 10 new members? What potential impact are they to exert on the economies of non-members of the EU, including Korea? Such effects are expressed in terms of sectoral output, agricultural income, real GDP and welfare of all countries concerned.

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