Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2014

Abstract

PurposeWe studied and reported on cancer incidence and mortality rates as projected for theyear 2014 in order to estimate Korea’s current cancer burden. Materials and MethodsCancer incidence data from 1999 to 2011 were obtained from the Korea NationalCancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2012 were acquiredfrom Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence in 2014 was projected by fitting a linearregression model to observed age-specific cancer incidence rates against observedyears, then multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. For cancer mortality, a similar procedure was employed, except that a Joinpoint regressionmodel was used to determine at which year the linear trend changed significantly. ResultsA total of 265,813 new cancer cases and 74,981 cancer deaths are expected tooccur in Korea in 2014. Further, the crude incidence rate per 100,000 of all sitescombined will likely reach 524.7 and the age-standardized incidence rate, 338.5. Meanwhile, the crude mortality rate of all sites combined and age-standardized rateare projected to be 148.0 and 84.6, respectively. Given the rapid rise in prostatecancer cases, it is anticipated to be the fourth most frequently occurring cancer sitein men for the first time. ConclusionCancer has become the most prominent public health concern in Korea, and as thepopulation ages, the nation’s cancer burden will continue to increase.