Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2015

Abstract

Purpose For estimation of Korea’s current cancer burden, this study aimed to report on the projectedcancer incidence and mortality rates for the year 2015. Materials and MethodsCancer incidence data from 1999 to 2012 were obtained from the Korea National CancerIncidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2013 were acquired fromStatistics Korea. The cancer incidence in 2015 was projected by fitting a linear regressionmodel to the observed age-specific cancer incidence rates against the observed years andthen multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. A similarprocedure was used for cancer mortality, except a Joinpoint regression model was used todetermine at which year the linear trend changed significantly. ResultsA total of 280,556 new cancer cases and 76,698 cancer deaths are expected to occur inKorea in 2015. The crude incidence rate per 100,000 of all sites combined will likely reach551.6 and the age-standardized incidence rate, 347.6. The estimated five leading primarycancer incidence sites are the stomach, colorectum, lung, prostate, and liver in men; andthyroid, breast, colorectum, stomach, and lung in women. The projected crude mortalityrate of all sites combined and age-standardized rate is 150.8 and 82.4, respectively. ConclusionCancer is currently one of the foremost public health concerns in Korea, and as the populationages, the nation’s cancer burden will continue to increase.