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The Effect of Life Events on Poverty Transitions for the U.S. Elderly

이영애
한국소비자학회 (Korean Society Of Consumer Studies)|2011.06|소비자학연구 (Journal of Consumer Studies)|제22권 제2호|pp. 61-87

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참고문헌

키워드

노인빈곤povertyelderly생존분석survival analysispoverty spell빈곤이행빈곤주기exit ratepoverty transitionsre-entry rate빈곤탈출율빈곤재진입율
주제분류경제학

초록

The purpose of this study is to examine the likelihood of poverty transition and the effects of different events on poor elderly. This study is important because the aging population has grown rapidly, and elderly poverty involves many complex relationships across an individual’s life span. The contributions of this study are to improve the understanding of elderly poverty and to provide considerable policy implications for elderly demographic changes in the future. The data for this study are from the years 1992-2006 of the Health and Retirement Study(HRS) and the sample consists of 30,405 elderly individuals from eight waves. To examine the incidence and dynamics of elderly poverty, the poverty exit(re-entry) hazard rate based on Kaplan-Meier productlimit estimates are used. Entry into and exit from elderly poverty models are separately used to estimate the conditional relationship between poverty transition and multiple trigger events as well as various covariates using the discrete-time hazard model. These multivariate techniques show a more realistic picture of elderly poverty transition in terms of providing a preliminary explanation of the unobserved heterogeneity of the elderly poverty. The major findings are: (1) in terms of poverty entry and exit rates, the exit rate was decreased during the 1990s, but the rate was increased during the 2000s while the entry rate fell somewhat during the 1990s and rose somewhat during the 2000s; (2) as the length of the poverty spell increased,the probability of poverty exit decreased; (3) as the non-poverty duration increases, the poverty reentry rates are constant at around 10 percent; (4) retirement and a negative change in health condition both have significant effects on elderly poverty entry, while retirement, increase in total wealth, and becoming insured from any government health program all have significant effects on elderly poverty exit; and (5) life history variables, such as total years of work and length of marriage have significant effects on both elderly poverty entry and exit. Results from the hazard rates(exit and re-entry rate)imply that a person who falls into poverty during his or her elderly years is highly likely to remain poor because the exit probabilities fall as the length of the poverty spell increases. In addition, the results of constant re-entry rates infer that the elderly population is exposed to the risk of falling to an income that puts them below the poverty line. Results from multivariate analysis suggest that retirement has an important role in elderly poverty transition and a negative change in health condition also has positive impact on elderly poverty entry. Thus, effective income support programs and social policies for the elderly help to prevent elderly individuals from becoming poor.

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the likelihood of poverty transition and the effects of different events on poor elderly. This study is important because the aging population has grown rapidly, and elderly poverty involves many complex relationships across an individual’s life span. The contributions of this study are to improve the understanding of elderly poverty and to provide considerable policy implications for elderly demographic changes in the future. The data for this study are from the years 1992-2006 of the Health and Retirement Study(HRS) and the sample consists of 30,405 elderly individuals from eight waves. To examine the incidence and dynamics of elderly poverty, the poverty exit(re-entry) hazard rate based on Kaplan-Meier productlimit estimates are used. Entry into and exit from elderly poverty models are separately used to estimate the conditional relationship between poverty transition and multiple trigger events as well as various covariates using the discrete-time hazard model. These multivariate techniques show a more realistic picture of elderly poverty transition in terms of providing a preliminary explanation of the unobserved heterogeneity of the elderly poverty. The major findings are: (1) in terms of poverty entry and exit rates, the exit rate was decreased during the 1990s, but the rate was increased during the 2000s while the entry rate fell somewhat during the 1990s and rose somewhat during the 2000s; (2) as the length of the poverty spell increased,the probability of poverty exit decreased; (3) as the non-poverty duration increases, the poverty reentry rates are constant at around 10 percent; (4) retirement and a negative change in health condition both have significant effects on elderly poverty entry, while retirement, increase in total wealth, and becoming insured from any government health program all have significant effects on elderly poverty exit; and (5) life history variables, such as total years of work and length of marriage have significant effects on both elderly poverty entry and exit. Results from the hazard rates(exit and re-entry rate)imply that a person who falls into poverty during his or her elderly years is highly likely to remain poor because the exit probabilities fall as the length of the poverty spell increases. In addition, the results of constant re-entry rates infer that the elderly population is exposed to the risk of falling to an income that puts them below the poverty line. Results from multivariate analysis suggest that retirement has an important role in elderly poverty transition and a negative change in health condition also has positive impact on elderly poverty entry. Thus, effective income support programs and social policies for the elderly help to prevent elderly individuals from becoming poor.

참고문헌 (52)

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