논문KCI 등재
동아시아 금융위기와 외환위기의 이론적 고찰
Financial Crisis Theories and the 1997 Financial Crisis in Southeast Asia
국제지역연구원 (Institute of Global Affairs)|2006.11|아태연구 (Journal of Asia-Pacific Studies)|제13권 제2호|pp. 139-158
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초록
본 논문은 금융위기의 이론을 살펴보고 1997년에 아시아 전역을 휩쓸었던 동아시아 금융위기에 대해서 조사하였다. 과거 30년간 고속의 경제성장을 보여온 아시아 국가들은 1997년 7월 2일 발생한 태국통화 바트화의 붕괴로 갑자기 경제위기에 봉착하였다. 동아시아 금융위기 이전까지는 금융위기를 설명하는 소위 제1세대 및 제2세대 금융위기모델이 있었다. 제1세대모델은 지속불가능한 재정 및 통화 정책은 고정환율제도와 양립할 수 없다는, 즉 근본적인 불균형상태에서 위기가 야기된다는 것이다. 반면 제2세대모델은 위기를 자기실현적 기대와 복수의 균형상태로서 설명하려 한다. 1997년도의 동아시아 금융위기 이후 기존모델에 대한 대안으로 새로운 모델이 등장하였는데, 이는 도덕적 해이, 금융부문의 취약성, 대차대조표의 불균형 및 전염효과 등으로 위기를 진단하는 소위 제 3세대 모델의 등장으로서, 동아시아 금융위기를 분석하는데 기존의 모델로서는 한계가 있다는 것이다. 이 논문은 동아시아지역의 금융위기를 초래한 요인을 분석하고 제3세대 모델에서 제시한 요인들을 점검한다.
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