거시경제변수가 주택담보대출에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 - 경남지역을 중심으로 -

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to derive the decision factors of Kyongnam mortgage market using Macro-economic variables, and VECM(Vector Error Correction Model)is adopted as a methodology in the aspect that the used variables have time-serial characteristics. The results are as follows; first, it is identified that interest rate, consumer price and M2 are the main factors determining the amount of mortgage in the area. Among them, interest rate influences the most to the mortgage market due to an increase in the ability of housing purchase, followed by M2 and consumer price. However, economic growth that is regarded as a typical capability of housing purchase was not influential factor to the mortgage market. The results imply that the capital market variables such as interest rate, M2 and consumer price should be considered to the decision making process of managing the mortgage market in local provinces since mortgage market and a risk of household finance are closely related each other.