부동산PF 리스크 요소별 중요도 평가

Abstract

This study investigates the relative importance of risk factors in real estate project financing (PF) using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Amid heightened uncertainty in Korea’s PF market—driven by prolonged high interest rates, liquidity constraints, and weakened market confidence—there is an urgent need to identify and prioritize risk elements in a structured manner. The study classifies PF risks into six categories: market risk, project risk, financial risk, developer risk, contractor risk, and credit protection risk, encompassing 24 detailed sub-factors. A survey was conducted with industry experts, including stakeholders from financial institutions, developers, and construction firms. The AHP analysis shows that market and project risks are considered most critical, with site acquisition, regulatory approval, and presale rates emerging as key determinants of project viability. The findings also reveal significant perception gaps among stakeholder groups, reflecting their differing legal, financial, and operational exposures within the PF structure. These results underscore the necessity of establishing a standardized, data-driven risk assessment framework and suggest directions for improving PF credit evaluation models, contractual structures, and regulatory oversight.