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자본이동 및 환율 변동성에 대응한 통합적 정책체계 논의와 시사점

Integrated Policy Framework and Its Policy Implications

채동우|이아랑|나승호
한국경제학회 (The Korean Economic Association)|2023.04|한국경제포럼 (The Korean Economic Forum)|제16권 제1호|pp. 83-115|DOI 10.22841/kefdoi.2023.16.1.003

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외환시장개입통화불일치통합정책체계거시금융안정체계자본이동관리조치integrated policy frameworkmacro-financial stability frameworkscapital flow management measurescurrency mismatchforeign exchange intervention
주제분류경제학

초록

본고는 IMF와 BIS를 중심으로 진행된 통합적 정책체계에 대한 최근의 논의를 정리하고 우리나라에의 정책적 함의를 도출하였다. 통합적 정책체계에 대한 접근은 선진국의 통화정책 등 글로벌 금융상황의 변화에 따라 신흥국의 자본이동 및 환율변동성이 확대되고 이에 대한 적극적인 대응이 필요하다는 인식에서 출발하였다. 이는 물가안정을 위한 금리정책과 자유변동환율제를 이상적인 정책체계로 보는 기존관점이 일부 수정되는 과정으로 볼 수 있다. 단기적으로는 국내 외환정책 및 자본이동관리정책이 동 논의의 영향으로 크게 변화될 필요는 없겠으나, 장기적인 외환시장 발전방안과 정책방향을 수립하는 데 있어서는 우리나라의 외환시장 심도, 대외자산․부채에 존재하는 통화불일치, 외국인의 국채시장에 대한 영향력 정도를 면밀히 판단하는 과정이 선제되어야 할 것이다.

Abstract

This paper summarizes recent discussions on the integrated policy system centered on the IMF and the BIS and derives policy implications for Korea. The approach to an integrated policy system starts from the recognition that capital flows and exchange rate volatility in emerging countries tend to be heightened due to changes in global financial conditions, such as monetary policies in advanced countries, thus active responses are needed. It can be seen as a progress of the existing view of the interest rate policy with free floating exchange rate system as an ideal policy framework. In the short term, Korean foreign exchange policy and capital flow management measures will not change significantly under the influence of this discussion. In establishing long-term foreign exchange market advance development plans and policy directions, however, it is necessary to preemptively judge the depth of Korea’s foreign exchange market, the currency mismatch embedded in external assets and liabilities position, and the degree of foreign investors’ influence on the government bond market.

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