An Analytical Framework for Studying the Determinants of Vertical Specialization in Asian Countries
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The paper first presents and modifies this model and then explores its predictions in an empirical analysis of the determinants of vertical specialization (VS) as defined by an index developed by Hummels et al. (2011). The index is calculated for a cross-section of 45 Asian countries and 5 sectors and regressed on a number of variables affecting the timeliness of delivery. In this paper, we identify a deeper dimension of the rising trade shares: the increased importance of imported inputs in the production of goods that are exported that is, vertical specialization. Our evidence from case studies and regression results tables points to large and increasing shares of trade that can be attributed to vertical-specialization based trade. The quantification of VS based trade for each country/product pair in each period is made in a relative and conservative manner, since it includes only the value of intermediate imports that surpasses what is implied by the chosen threshold. The detailed results can be subsequently added up to get any product or geographical breakdown desired. We illustrate this measure by showing the evolution of VS activities at the level over the last four decades using a product breakdown by technological intensity and a geographical breakdown by main areas. There is also empirical evidence on the sharp increase of VS activities in Asia. It is found that vertical specialization is sensitive to trade barriers and infrastructure quality and cost of infrastructural services. The relative importance of trade barriers and various indicators of infrastructure vary between sectors. Thus, we can expect the importance of vertical trade to grow as the world economy heads into the twenty first century.
Abstract
The paper first presents and modifies this model and then explores its predictions in an empirical analysis of the determinants of vertical specialization (VS) as defined by an index developed by Hummels et al. (2011). The index is calculated for a cross-section of 45 Asian countries and 5 sectors and regressed on a number of variables affecting the timeliness of delivery. In this paper, we identify a deeper dimension of the rising trade shares: the increased importance of imported inputs in the production of goods that are exported that is, vertical specialization. Our evidence from case studies and regression results tables points to large and increasing shares of trade that can be attributed to vertical-specialization based trade. The quantification of VS based trade for each country/product pair in each period is made in a relative and conservative manner, since it includes only the value of intermediate imports that surpasses what is implied by the chosen threshold. The detailed results can be subsequently added up to get any product or geographical breakdown desired. We illustrate this measure by showing the evolution of VS activities at the level over the last four decades using a product breakdown by technological intensity and a geographical breakdown by main areas. There is also empirical evidence on the sharp increase of VS activities in Asia. It is found that vertical specialization is sensitive to trade barriers and infrastructure quality and cost of infrastructural services. The relative importance of trade barriers and various indicators of infrastructure vary between sectors. Thus, we can expect the importance of vertical trade to grow as the world economy heads into the twenty first century.
참고문헌 (17)
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