RAILROAD INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE ANTEBELLUM UNITED STATES
1
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
We measure the overall impact of railroad investment on economic development in the antebellum period in the United States using a vector autoregressive approach. Our results can be summarized as follows. First, we find bidirectional causality between railroad infrastructure investment and GDP. Second, we estimate a marginal product of $4.2 for railroad investment which corresponds to a 15.5% rate of return when considering a 10–year lifetime for railroad capital. While about two-thirds of this effect stems from the supply side, short run demand side effects also are substantial. Third, given the low effective tax rates practiced in the 1830s and the magnitude of the effects of railroad investment we estimate, it is very likely that these investments were not self-financing and may, therefore, have contributed to the high levels of public indebtedness observed in the period.
Abstract
We measure the overall impact of railroad investment on economic development in the antebellum period in the United States using a vector autoregressive approach. Our results can be summarized as follows. First, we find bidirectional causality between railroad infrastructure investment and GDP. Second, we estimate a marginal product of $4.2 for railroad investment which corresponds to a 15.5% rate of return when considering a 10–year lifetime for railroad capital. While about two-thirds of this effect stems from the supply side, short run demand side effects also are substantial. Third, given the low effective tax rates practiced in the 1830s and the magnitude of the effects of railroad investment we estimate, it is very likely that these investments were not self-financing and may, therefore, have contributed to the high levels of public indebtedness observed in the period.
참고문헌 (33)
- Railroads and the Rise of the Factory: Evidence for the United States, 1850-70, "Atack, J.", National Bureau of Economic Research, ~, pp.NBER Working Papers 14410 (2008)
- Atack, J., "Did Railroads Induce or Follow Economic Growth? Urbanization and Population Growth in the American Midwest, 1850-1860", Social Science History, 2, pp.171~197 (2010)
- Atack, J., "The Impact of Access to Rail Transportation on Agricultural Improvement : The American Midwest as a Test Case, 1850-1860", Journal of Transport and Land Use, 4(2), pp.5~18 (2011)
- Atack, J., "American Banking and the Transportation Revolution before the Civil War", Journal of Economic History, 74, pp.943~986 (2014)
- Atack, J., "Enterprising America: Businesses, Banks, and Credit Markets in Historical Perspective" (2014), National Bureau of Economic Research
- Locomotives of Local Growth: The Short- and Long-Term Impact of Railroads in Sweden, "Berger, T.", Department of Economic History, Lund University, ~, pp.Lund Papers in Economic History, 132 (2014)
- Christiano, L., "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds", Review of Economics and Statistics, 78(1), pp.16~34 (1996)
- Davis, J. H., "An Annual Index of U.S. Industrial Production, 1790-1915", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(4), pp.1177~1215 (2004)
- Railroads and American Economic Growth: A “Market Access” Approach, "Donaldson, D.", National Bureau of Economic Research, ~, pp.NBER Working Papers 19213 (2013)
- Railroads of the Raj: Estimating the Impact of Transportation Infrastructure, "Donaldson, D.", London School of Economics and Political Science, ~, pp.LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 38368 (2010)
- A VAR Analysis of the Transportation Revolution in Europe, "Felis-Rota, M.", Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, ~, pp.Working Papers in Economic History 2014 (2014), 01
- Fishlow, A., "American Railroads and the Transformation of the Ante-Bellum Economy" (1965), Harvard University Press
- Fogel, R. W., "Railroads and American Economic Growth" (1964), Johns Hopkins University Press
- Fogel, R. W., "Notes on the Social Saving Controversy", Journal of Economic History, 39(01), pp.1~54 (1979)
- Groote, P., "Infrastructure and Economic Development in the Netherlands, 1853-1913", European Review of Economic History, 3, pp.233~251 (1999)
- Herranz-Loncan, A., "Infrastructure and Economic Growth in Spain, 1845 1935", Journal of Economic History, 64(02), pp.540~545 (2004)
- Herranz-Loncan, A., "Infrastructure Investment and Spanish Economic Growth, 1850-1935", Explorations in Economic History, 44(3), pp.452~468 (2007)
- Howe, E., "The Historical Evolution of State and Local Tax Systems", Social Science Quarterly, 78(1), pp.109~121 (1997)
- Kilian, L., "Small-sample Confidence Intervals for Impulse Response Functions", Review of Economics and Statistics, 80, pp.218~230 (1998)
- Leunig, T., "Social Savings", Journal of Economic Surveys, 24(5), pp.775~800 (2010)
- Pereira, A. M., "Is All Public Capital Created Equal?", Review of Economics and Statistics, 82(3), pp.513~518 (2000)
- Pereira, A. M., "On the Effects of Public Investment on Private Investment: What Crowds in What?", Public Finance Review, 29(1), pp.3~25 (2001)
- Alfredo M. Pereira, "ON THE ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT: A SURVEY OF THE INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE", Journal of Economic Development, 38(4), pp.1~37 (2013), 경제연구소
- Qu, Z., "Estimating and Testing Structural Changes in Multivariate Regressions", Econometrica, 75, pp.459~502 (2007)
- Rousseau, P.L., "Emerging Financial Markets and early US Growth", Explorations in Economic History, 42(1), pp.1~26 (2005)
- Rudebusch, G. D., "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?", International Economic Review, 39, pp.907~931 (1998)
- Sargent, T. J., "Nobel Lecture : United States Then, Europe Now", Journal of Political Economy, 120(1), pp.1~40 (2012)
- Railroad Expansion and Entrepreneurship: Evidence from Meiji Japan, "Tang, J.", Australian National University, ~, pp.CEH Discussion Papers 011 (2013)
- Taylor, G., "The Transportation Revolution, 1815-1860" (1951), Holt, Rinehart and Winston
- Infrastructure Finance and Industrial Takeoff in the United Kingdom, "Trew, A.", Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis, ~, pp.CDMA Working Paper Series 200809 (2008)
- Wallis, J. J., "American Government Finance in the Long Run : 1790 to 1990", Journal of Economic Perspectives, 14(1), pp.61~82 (2000)
- Wallis, J. J., "Constitutions, Corporations, and Corruption : American States and Constitutional Change, 1842 to 1852", Journal of Economic History, 65(1), pp.211~256 (2005)
- "What Was the U.S. GDP Then?" (2014)[URL]