기후가 단감 생산에 미치는 영향 -경상남도를 사례로-
Impact of Climate on Yield of Sweet Persimmon in Gyeongsangnam-Province, South Korea
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초록
The purpose of this study is to extract climate factors affecting sweet persimmon yield by growth period and estimate the rate of future sweet persimmon yield using data of production and cultivation area of sweet persimmon and climate data for 1998-2015. During the analysis period, the cultivation area of sweet persimmon in Gyeongnam has been consistently decreasing, but sweet persimmon yield has increased. Climate factors that have statistically significant effects on sweet persimmon yield are mean temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation, precipitation days, and sunshine hours. The sweet persimmon yield is a statistically positively correlated with temperature and sunshine hours and negatively correlated with precipitation during the flowering period (April to May). The sweet persimmon yield is statistically positively correlated with precipitation in the growing period (June to August) and negatively correlated with temperature in maturity period (September to November). Future sweet persimmon yield is estimated to have a steadily decreasing rate of change in future climate change scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to extract climate factors affecting sweet persimmon yield by growth period and estimate the rate of future sweet persimmon yield using data of production and cultivation area of sweet persimmon and climate data for 1998-2015. During the analysis period, the cultivation area of sweet persimmon in Gyeongnam has been consistently decreasing, but sweet persimmon yield has increased. Climate factors that have statistically significant effects on sweet persimmon yield are mean temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation, precipitation days, and sunshine hours. The sweet persimmon yield is a statistically positively correlated with temperature and sunshine hours and negatively correlated with precipitation during the flowering period (April to May). The sweet persimmon yield is statistically positively correlated with precipitation in the growing period (June to August) and negatively correlated with temperature in maturity period (September to November). Future sweet persimmon yield is estimated to have a steadily decreasing rate of change in future climate change scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.
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