Evaluating Changes in Seasonal Precipitation Trends over Pakistan
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초록
This study presents changes in seasonal precipitation trends over Pakistan. The Mann-Kendall technique was applied to estimate the trends of seasonal precipitation for the periods of 1961-1990 and 1991-2020. The study reveals a significant decrease in pre-monsoon precipitation over the northwest and southwest regions of the country from 1991-2020. The summer monsoon precipitation has a significant decreasing trend in the east-west and an increase in the southwest areas of Pakistan from 1961-1990. While the east-west, central, and southeast areas indicated a significant increasing trend between 1991-2020. The results revealed that post-monsoon precipitation significantly decreased in east-western regions in the second half as compared to the first half of the investigated period. The statistical analysis also revealed significant increasing trends of precipitation for northeast areas of Pakistan during the winter season for the period of 1961-1990 as compared to 1991-2020. The winter precipitation also significantly decreased in the northern (humid) and southern (coastal) regions and increased in the eastern and western areas in the second half period. Conclusively, significant decreasing trends were analyzed in the southwest and central regions from 1991-2020 and increasing trends in the eastern and northern core monsoon regions of Pakistan in all seasons except post-monsoon during 1961-1990.
Abstract
This study presents changes in seasonal precipitation trends over Pakistan. The Mann-Kendall technique was applied to estimate the trends of seasonal precipitation for the periods of 1961-1990 and 1991-2020. The study reveals a significant decrease in pre-monsoon precipitation over the northwest and southwest regions of the country from 1991-2020. The summer monsoon precipitation has a significant decreasing trend in the east-west and an increase in the southwest areas of Pakistan from 1961-1990. While the east-west, central, and southeast areas indicated a significant increasing trend between 1991-2020. The results revealed that post-monsoon precipitation significantly decreased in east-western regions in the second half as compared to the first half of the investigated period. The statistical analysis also revealed significant increasing trends of precipitation for northeast areas of Pakistan during the winter season for the period of 1961-1990 as compared to 1991-2020. The winter precipitation also significantly decreased in the northern (humid) and southern (coastal) regions and increased in the eastern and western areas in the second half period. Conclusively, significant decreasing trends were analyzed in the southwest and central regions from 1991-2020 and increasing trends in the eastern and northern core monsoon regions of Pakistan in all seasons except post-monsoon during 1961-1990.
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