Changes of Extreme Precipitation Trends in Pakistan during 1961-2020
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This study analyzed changes in extreme precipitation trends over Pakistan for the period of 1961-2020. The changes in extreme precipitation trends were compared between two normal climate periods (1961-1990 and 1991-2020) over different precipitation regions of Pakistan. The Mann-Kendall test was applied to validate the trends of extreme precipitation. The changing rate of extreme precipitation trends was measured by Sen’s slope estimator. The results show that the number of heavy precipitation days increased in the Baluchistan plateau, Central plains, and Core monsoon regions for the period of 1961-1990 while decreased in the Southern desert regions in the period 1991-2020. The very heavy precipitation days increased in the Central plain, Muree Hills, Potwar, and Upper Indus pain regions during the period of 1991-2020. The decreasing trends of annual precipitation on wet days were analyzed in the Upper Indus Plain, Potwar, and Central Plains regions of the country. An increase in the number of five consecutive days was observed in the Potwar region, while it decreased in the Southern desert regions of the country during the period of 1991-2020. The analysis showed a significant increase in the intensity of extreme precipitation over the Northwestern mountainous, Muree Hills, and Central Plains regions of the country over the last three decades. Overall, the intensity of all extreme precipitation indices (R10, R20, PRCPTOT, and RX5) increased with greater tendency over the Northwestern mountain and Central plain regions while decreased in the Northwestern Baluchistan plateau and Southwestern regions of Quetta during the period of 1991-2020 compared to 1961-1990.
Abstract
This study analyzed changes in extreme precipitation trends over Pakistan for the period of 1961-2020. The changes in extreme precipitation trends were compared between two normal climate periods (1961-1990 and 1991-2020) over different precipitation regions of Pakistan. The Mann-Kendall test was applied to validate the trends of extreme precipitation. The changing rate of extreme precipitation trends was measured by Sen’s slope estimator. The results show that the number of heavy precipitation days increased in the Baluchistan plateau, Central plains, and Core monsoon regions for the period of 1961-1990 while decreased in the Southern desert regions in the period 1991-2020. The very heavy precipitation days increased in the Central plain, Muree Hills, Potwar, and Upper Indus pain regions during the period of 1991-2020. The decreasing trends of annual precipitation on wet days were analyzed in the Upper Indus Plain, Potwar, and Central Plains regions of the country. An increase in the number of five consecutive days was observed in the Potwar region, while it decreased in the Southern desert regions of the country during the period of 1991-2020. The analysis showed a significant increase in the intensity of extreme precipitation over the Northwestern mountainous, Muree Hills, and Central Plains regions of the country over the last three decades. Overall, the intensity of all extreme precipitation indices (R10, R20, PRCPTOT, and RX5) increased with greater tendency over the Northwestern mountain and Central plain regions while decreased in the Northwestern Baluchistan plateau and Southwestern regions of Quetta during the period of 1991-2020 compared to 1961-1990.
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