우리나라 봄철 강수량의 레짐전환에 대한 재고찰
Regime Shift in Spring Precipitation of South Korea: A Revisit
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This paper re-examines whether precipitation in Korea has undergone regime shift in the spring season. By employing the Bai and Perron’s test for regime shift, we extend the existing literature in two aspects. First, the test addresses the problem of a nuisance parameter that arises because the timing of the shift is not known in advance. Second, the possibility of multiple regime shifts are tested. For the period of 1954-2023, we find no evidence of regime shift in spring (MAM) precipitation, contrary to the existing literature. This paper further analyses monthly data and finds evidence in support of one-time regime shift in April precipitation in three regions, Mokpo, Yeosu and Gwangju, all located in Jeollanam-do. Mokpo and Yeosu switched from a high- to low-precipitation regime in 1978 and Gwangju in 1985. Therefore, spring drought in the form of regime shift is not nationwide in the entire season but limited to Jeollanam-do in April.
Abstract
This paper re-examines whether precipitation in Korea has undergone regime shift in the spring season. By employing the Bai and Perron’s test for regime shift, we extend the existing literature in two aspects. First, the test addresses the problem of a nuisance parameter that arises because the timing of the shift is not known in advance. Second, the possibility of multiple regime shifts are tested. For the period of 1954-2023, we find no evidence of regime shift in spring (MAM) precipitation, contrary to the existing literature. This paper further analyses monthly data and finds evidence in support of one-time regime shift in April precipitation in three regions, Mokpo, Yeosu and Gwangju, all located in Jeollanam-do. Mokpo and Yeosu switched from a high- to low-precipitation regime in 1978 and Gwangju in 1985. Therefore, spring drought in the form of regime shift is not nationwide in the entire season but limited to Jeollanam-do in April.
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