우리나라 봄꽃 개화일에 영향을 미치는 봄철 기온의 변동과 변화 경향에 관한 연구
A Study on the Variability and Trend of Spring Temperature Affecting Spring Flowering Date over South Korea
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초록
The variability and trend in spring temperature and their impacts on spring flowering date of cherry tree and forsythia are analyzed with the long-term (1973-2022) historical observation data from 16 selected Automated Synoptic Observing System (ASOS) stations in South Korea. Over the last 50 years, the flowering dates in South Korea (across 16 stations averaged) have been significantly decreased by -2.3 days per decade for cherry tree and -1.4 days per decade for forsythia. The rapid decrease in flowering date and the gap between the earliest and latest flowering station was twice as much in cherry tree than forsythia at recent decade (2013-2022) compared to the period from 1973-1982. To understand the consequence of variability and change in spring f lowering dates, this study employed two methods using the concept of the importance in factor as (1) spring temperature during the last phase of plant dormancy (L model) and (2) we focused on the role of annual distribution of diurnal temperature changes. The phenological (P model) key parameters (threshold temperature, dormancy release date, chilling and heating requirement). To find out the optimized source for parameterization of the phenology model, the annual distribution of diurnal temperature change was emphasized. The result from the application of the P and L model to 16 stations in South Korea indicated that the estimation of flowering dates can be improved with process-based usage of phenological factors for P model and consideration of the intraseasonal temperature distribution for L model.
Abstract
The variability and trend in spring temperature and their impacts on spring flowering date of cherry tree and forsythia are analyzed with the long-term (1973-2022) historical observation data from 16 selected Automated Synoptic Observing System (ASOS) stations in South Korea. Over the last 50 years, the flowering dates in South Korea (across 16 stations averaged) have been significantly decreased by -2.3 days per decade for cherry tree and -1.4 days per decade for forsythia. The rapid decrease in flowering date and the gap between the earliest and latest flowering station was twice as much in cherry tree than forsythia at recent decade (2013-2022) compared to the period from 1973-1982. To understand the consequence of variability and change in spring f lowering dates, this study employed two methods using the concept of the importance in factor as (1) spring temperature during the last phase of plant dormancy (L model) and (2) we focused on the role of annual distribution of diurnal temperature changes. The phenological (P model) key parameters (threshold temperature, dormancy release date, chilling and heating requirement). To find out the optimized source for parameterization of the phenology model, the annual distribution of diurnal temperature change was emphasized. The result from the application of the P and L model to 16 stations in South Korea indicated that the estimation of flowering dates can be improved with process-based usage of phenological factors for P model and consideration of the intraseasonal temperature distribution for L model.
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