울릉도 기후영향인자의 변화와 미래전망 분석에 관한 연구

Abstract

In this study, we analyzed changes and projections of various climatic impact drivers (CIDs) in Ulleungdo using observation (1939-2023) and future scenario data (2021-2100). Among the mean CIDs, the rise in the temperature and the decrease in the wind speeds were most prevalent. The changing rates of annual mean and minimum temperature in Ulleungdo were smaller than the Korea national mean due to the modulation effect of the ocean. However, the maximum temperature showed a greater increasing rate than the national mean. Annual precipitation has not changed while summer precipitation has significantly increased and is expected to increase in the future. Precipitation is essential for the regional water resource management in Ulleungdo. In particular, snowfall has a significant impact on water resources and water cycle patterns in the region. Changes in cold CIDs were clearly pronounced while hot CIDs showed fewer significant changes. Dry CIDs showed no significant change in Ulleungdo indicating a relatively lower potential risk of dry conditions. Many wet CIDs had enhanced their intensity. Since Ulleungdo has geographical characteristics of a non-urban oceanic area, the aspect and scale of climate change also appear differently. These characteristics of Ulleungdo’s climatic conditions might determine the long-term impact of climate change on Ulleungdo. Changes in the existing climate system will affect the ecosystem and socioeconomic system, so appropriate adaptation measures are necessary to reduce various risks of climate change.