한반도 미래 기온 변화 예측을 위한 ECHO-G/S 시나리오의 통계적 상세화에 관한 연구
A Study on Statistical Downscaling for Projection of Future Temperature Change simulated by ECHO-G/S over the Korean Peninsula
1
조회
0
다운로드
7
인용
0
참고문헌
초록
Abstract
Statistical downscaled surface temperature datasets by employing the cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function (CSEOF) analysis and multiple linear regression method are examined. For evaluating the efficiency of this statistical downscaling method, monthly surface temperature of the ECMWF has been downscaled into monthly temperature having a fine spatial scale of ~20km over the Korean peninsula for the 1973-2000 period. Monthly surface temperature of the ECHOG has also been downscaled into the same spatial scale data for the same period. Comparisons of temperatures between two datasets over the Korean peninsula show that annual mean temperature of the ECMWF is about 2℃ higher than that of the ECHOG. After applying to the statistical downscaling method, the difference of two annual mean temperatures reduces less than 1℃ and their spatial patterns become even close to each other. Future downscaled data shows that annual temperatures in the A1B scenario will increase by 3.5℃ by the late 21st century. The downscaled data are influenced by the ECHOG as well as observation data which includes effects of complicated topography and the heat island.
참고문헌 (22)
- 김맹기, "광역 기후변수와 지역 기후변수 사이 의 통계적 연관성: 한반도의 온난화와 연관된 북반구 해면 기압 패턴", 한국기상학회지, 33, pp.261~271 (1997)
- 김맹기, "한반도 기후변화 시나리오를 위한 통계적 규모축소법의 적용성", 한국기상학회지, 41(2, pp.1) (2005), 217~227[DOI]
- 안중배, "역학적으로 규모축소된 남한의 겨울철 기온에 대한 인공신경망과 다중선형회귀모형을 이용한 보정 비교 연구", 한국기상학회지, 41(3), pp.401~413 (2005), 한국기상학회
- 차유미, "역학적으로 규모축소된 남한의 여름철 강수에 대한 인공신경망보정 능력평가", 한국기상학회지, 41(6), pp.1125~1135 (2005), 한국기상학회
- Conway, D., "Precipitation and air flow indices over the British Isles", Clim. Res, 7, pp.169~183 (1996)
- IPCC, "Climate Change 2007: The Physical Scientific Basis, Working group Ⅰcontribution to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Summary for Policymakers", pp.996~ (2007), Cambridge University Press
- Kim, J.-W., "The Statistical Problem of Climate Inversion: Determination of the Relationship between Local and Large-Scale Climate", Mon. Wea. Rev, 112, pp.2069~2077 (1984)
- Kim, K.-Y., "EOFs of harmonizable cyclostationary processes", J. Atmos. Sci, 54, pp.2416~2427 (1997)
- Kim, K.-Y., "Statistical Interpolation Using Cyclostationary EOFs", J. Climate, 10, pp.2931~2942 (1997)
- Kim, K.-Y., "On the Evolution of the Annual Cycle in the Tropical Pacific", J. Climate, 14, pp.991~994 (2001)
- Kim, M, "Superensemble Prediction of Regional Precipitation Over Korea", Intl. J. Climatol, 24, pp.777~790 (2004)
- The Hamburg Atmosphere Ocean Coupled Circulation Model ECHO-G, "Legutke, S", 62~, pp.18 (1999)
- Lim, Y.-K., "Temporal and Spatial Evolution of the Asian Summer Monsoon in the Seasonal Cycle of Synoptic Fields", J. Climate, 15, pp.3630~3644 (2002)
- Lim, Y.-K., "A new perspective on the climate prediction of Asian summer monsoon precipitation", J. Climate, 19, pp.4840~4853 (2006)
- Lim, Y.-K., "Dynamically and statistically downscaled seasonal simulations of maximum surface air temperature over the southeastern United States", J. Geophys. Res, 112, pp.D24102~ (2007)
- Min, S. K., "Future Projections of East Asian Climate Change from Multi AOGCM Ensembles of IPCC SRES Scenario Simulations", J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 82, pp.1187~1211 (2004)
- Salathe´, E. P, "Comparison of various precipitation downscaling methods for the simulation of streamflow in a rainshadow river basin", Intl. J. Climatol, 23, pp.887~901 (2003)
- Seo, K.-H., "Propagation and Initiation Mechanisms of the Madden-Julian Oscillation", J. Geophys. Res, 108, pp.4384~4405 (2003)
- Widmann M., "Validation of mesoscale precipitation in the NCEWP reanalysis using a new grid-cell precipitation dataset for the Northwestern United States", J. Climate, 13, pp.1936~1950 (2000)
- Wilby, R. L., "Downscaling general circulation model output: A review of methods and limitations", Prog. Phys. Geogr, 21, pp.530~548 (1997)
- Von Storch H, "Downscaling of global climate estimates to regional scales: an application to the Iberian rainfall in wintertime", J. Climate, 6, pp.1161~1171 (1993)
- Von Storch H, "Spatial patterns: EOFs and CCA. Analysis if Climate Variability: Application of Statistical Techniques", pp.227~258 (1995), Springer-Verlag