Nuclear-Armed North Korea and South Korea’s Strategic Countermeasures

Abstract

North Korea’s nuclear crisis is the most dangerous security threat South Korea has faced since the Korean War and is likely to serve as a turning point that can trigger a structural change in the status quo of the Korean peninsula. To the North Korean regime, nuclear weapons are a critical military element that can be used as a threat to dominate South Korea in the two countries’ rivalry and as a last resort to guarantee the regime’s survival and continuity. This paper first discusses capability and strategic implications of a nuclear-armed North Korea. The paper then examines the positions of the ROK and the United States on how to view and deal with North Korea’s nuclear crisis and highlights the differences of the two sides’ approaches. Finally, as a main argument of this paper, it is proposed that the South Korean government should adopt a new strategic paradigm in order to bring the North Korea nuclear problem to a final conclusion. The new approach maintains that it is time for the ROK to launch a strategy integrating coercion and inducement rather than sticking to the one-dimensional carrot–only strategy. Three strategic countermeasures and related policy options are proposed to the South Korean government. In particular, this paper emphasizes the importance of being prepared for North Korea’s nuclear weapons in the military and security dimensions.