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Cross-Strait Détente and Implications for U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan

Cheng-yi Lin
한국국방연구원 (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses)|2013.09|The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis|제25권 제3호|pp. 415-434|DOI 10.22883/kjda.2013.25.3.008

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TaiwanChinaObamaarms salescross-Strait relations

초록

Cross-Strait détente in the wake of China’s rise presents the United States a greater challenge in selling new, advanced weaponry to Taiwan, owing to the political unpredictability of cross-Strait relations and the insurmountable task of maintaining a military balance across the Taiwan Strait. In contrast to the Bush administration, the Obama administration is more concerned about China’s retaliation against U.S. defense corporations involved in arms sales to Taiwan and the maintenance of Sino-American strategic stability. The United States is faced with warming crossStrait relations and Taiwan’s unknown political destiny with China, complicating faithful implementation of the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) by the United States. The rise of China has further constrained U.S. policymakers in their deliberation of arms sales to Taiwan. With the signature of 19 cross-Strait functional agreements and all kinds of interflows, Beijing has some evidence-backed arguments that the United States should cease arms sales to Taiwan in accordance with the August 17, 1982 Communiqué. A policy of actively implementing the TRA and providing Taiwan with the most advanced weapons is becoming harder to implement, but the TRA is not moribund unless Beijing renounces the use of force against Taiwan, or Taipei enters a process of political negotiation leading to final settlement of its status with China.

Abstract

Cross-Strait détente in the wake of China’s rise presents the United States a greater challenge in selling new, advanced weaponry to Taiwan, owing to the political unpredictability of cross-Strait relations and the insurmountable task of maintaining a military balance across the Taiwan Strait. In contrast to the Bush administration, the Obama administration is more concerned about China’s retaliation against U.S. defense corporations involved in arms sales to Taiwan and the maintenance of Sino-American strategic stability. The United States is faced with warming crossStrait relations and Taiwan’s unknown political destiny with China, complicating faithful implementation of the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) by the United States. The rise of China has further constrained U.S. policymakers in their deliberation of arms sales to Taiwan. With the signature of 19 cross-Strait functional agreements and all kinds of interflows, Beijing has some evidence-backed arguments that the United States should cease arms sales to Taiwan in accordance with the August 17, 1982 Communiqué. A policy of actively implementing the TRA and providing Taiwan with the most advanced weapons is becoming harder to implement, but the TRA is not moribund unless Beijing renounces the use of force against Taiwan, or Taipei enters a process of political negotiation leading to final settlement of its status with China.

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