Mission Impossible? Negotiated Settlement, UN PKO, and Post-Civil War Democracy Building
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Under what conditions can democracy emerge and survive in countries emerging from violent civil conflicts? Using event history analysis, this article shows that the chance for democratization increases substantially by the combination of two factors: whether a civil war ends through peace negotiations and whether United Nations (UN) peacekeeping forces are deployed after the signing of a peace treaty. Negotiated settlements or UN peacekeeping operations alone cannot resolve the security dilemma and credible commitment problems of civil war adversaries, which are the main obstacles to the transition from war to peace and democracy. Yet these factors have little to do with sustaining democracy in the aftermath of civil war. What matters most for the survival of democracy is rapid economic recovery that can provide better opportunities for former combatants to be reintegrated into normal economic life. These findings suggest that for successful post-conflict democratization the international community should mediate peace negotiations actively and also make a strong effort to maintain peace while helping to reconstruct the war-torn economy.
Abstract
Under what conditions can democracy emerge and survive in countries emerging from violent civil conflicts? Using event history analysis, this article shows that the chance for democratization increases substantially by the combination of two factors: whether a civil war ends through peace negotiations and whether United Nations (UN) peacekeeping forces are deployed after the signing of a peace treaty. Negotiated settlements or UN peacekeeping operations alone cannot resolve the security dilemma and credible commitment problems of civil war adversaries, which are the main obstacles to the transition from war to peace and democracy. Yet these factors have little to do with sustaining democracy in the aftermath of civil war. What matters most for the survival of democracy is rapid economic recovery that can provide better opportunities for former combatants to be reintegrated into normal economic life. These findings suggest that for successful post-conflict democratization the international community should mediate peace negotiations actively and also make a strong effort to maintain peace while helping to reconstruct the war-torn economy.
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