North Korea and the United States: A Strategic Profile

Abstract

The true motivation behind North Korea’s nuclear weapons program may be known only to Kim Jong-Il and his military advisers. Nevertheless, through an analysis of a state’s bargaining positions, rhetoric, and military decisions, it is possible to create a strategic profile that can help to determine its primary interests and probable future choices. In North Korea’s case, it appears that defensive objectives are paramount, with its nuclear program serving either as a source of exchange in return for a security guarantee, or a means to deter the United States from taking aggressive action. The troubling possibility is that due to North Korea’s dire financial situation, reprocessed plutonium from the Yongbyon reactor will find its way onto the black market and into the hands of terrorists, despite the best efforts of the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI). This may be an unlikely prospect, given that to date North Korea has only exported its missile technology, and not any Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). However, circumstances may change, or an unexpected coup could create a scramble for nuclear material beyond international control. This dire prospect should drive U.S. negotiators to be more flexible and conciliatory in its settlement efforts, since there are few other credible options and time is very much on North Korea’s side.