The Self-entrapment of Rationality in Dealing with North Korea
0
조회
0
다운로드
2
인용
0
참고문헌
초록
Although South Korea and the democratic countries in the region have tried hard to solve the problems of North Korea for over 55 years, since the end of the Korean War, most approaches in the past seem to have failed. So, it is very necessary to reexamine their approaches toward North Korea before repeating more mistakes in the future. North Korean policymakers probably are not as rational as most people assume. North Korea’s total failure as a state proves that they have accumulated more irrational decisions than rational ones in their management of the country. They failed to choose the best courses of action to achieve their goals. They probably do not have sufficient information, abundant and active flow of information, or freedom of action for rational decisions. Therefore, the policymakers in democratic countries should be cautious not to entrap themselves by assuming that North Korean counterparts also are applying the rational model to decisions. This could be reinforced by two cases*an analysis of the North Korean motives for the axe murder incident at Panmunjeom in 1976 and North Korea’s announcement of the so-called nuclear test in 2006. There is no better way for policymakers in democratic countries than to take more fact-oriented approaches toward their analyses and predictions about a probably irrational North Korea.
Abstract
Although South Korea and the democratic countries in the region have tried hard to solve the problems of North Korea for over 55 years, since the end of the Korean War, most approaches in the past seem to have failed. So, it is very necessary to reexamine their approaches toward North Korea before repeating more mistakes in the future. North Korean policymakers probably are not as rational as most people assume. North Korea’s total failure as a state proves that they have accumulated more irrational decisions than rational ones in their management of the country. They failed to choose the best courses of action to achieve their goals. They probably do not have sufficient information, abundant and active flow of information, or freedom of action for rational decisions. Therefore, the policymakers in democratic countries should be cautious not to entrap themselves by assuming that North Korean counterparts also are applying the rational model to decisions. This could be reinforced by two cases*an analysis of the North Korean motives for the axe murder incident at Panmunjeom in 1976 and North Korea’s announcement of the so-called nuclear test in 2006. There is no better way for policymakers in democratic countries than to take more fact-oriented approaches toward their analyses and predictions about a probably irrational North Korea.
참고문헌 (23)
- Chuck Downs, "Over the Line: North Korea’s Negotiating Strategy", pp.10~ (1999), AEI Press
- Karen Mingst, "Essentials of International Relations", pp.133~ (1999), Norton
- Paul French, "North Korea: The Paranoid Peninsula -A Modern History", pp.27~ (2005), Zed Books
- Michael Hill, "The Policy Process in the Modern State", pp.1997, Prentice-Hall
- Random House, "The Random House of Dictionary of the English Language, 2nd ed", pp.1603~ (1987), Random House
- "The New Encyclopedia Britannica 25", pp.640~644 (2003)
- Herbert A. Simon, "Administrative Behavior, 2nd edition" (1957), Macmillan
- Thomas R. Dye, "Understanding Public Policy, 12th ed", pp.11~12 (2008), Pearson Prentice Hall
- Charles E. Lindblom, "The Policymaking Process" (1993), Prentice Hall
- Frank C. Zagare, "Modeling International Conflict", pp.2~3 (1990), Gordon & Breach Science Publishers
- Scott Snyder, "Negotiating On the Edge: North Korean Negotiating Action", pp.145~ (1999), United States Institute of Peace Press
- Systems, "Undestanding of Modern North Korea, In Thoughts", pp.Yeoksa Bipyungsa, Leaders
- Hazel Smith, "Hungry for Peace", pp.5~ (2005), U.S. Institute of Peace
- Richard Saccone, "Living with the Enemy: Inside North Korea", pp.8~ (2006), Hollym International Corp
- Don Oberdorfer, "The Two Koreas: A Contemporary History", pp.82~ (1997), Addison-Wesley
- "Chosun Ilbo, August 21, 1976", ~ (1976)
- Wayne A. Kirkbride, "DMZ: A Story of the Panmunjom Axe Murder", pp.30~ (1980), Hollym
- Moon-hang Lee, "JSA- Panmunjom", pp.71~ (2001), Soha Pub
- CNN, "North Korea Pledges to Test Nuclear Bomb", ~ (2006)
- "Chosun Ilbo, October 4, 2006", ~ (2006)
- Bruce Bennett, "The Future Direction of U.S.-ROK Deterrence Policy Cooperation: Managing the North Korea Nuclear Weapon Threat", Korean Journal of Security Affairs, 13(1), pp.35~ (2008)
- Charles L Pritchard, "Failed Diplomacy: The Tragic Story of How North Korea Got the Bomb" (2007), Brookings Institution Press