From Engagement to Hedging: South Korea’s New China Policy
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With the inauguration of South Korea’s new president, Lee Myung-bak, Korea’s China policy is changing. Replacing the policy of tilting toward China pursued by his predecessor, Roh Moo-hyun, President Lee instead suggests a policy of hedging toward China. In general, the policy of hedging is composed of two different approaches, engagement and balancing. President Lee’s twin hedging emphasizes deep engagement and soft balancing toward China. The basic rationale of the Republic of Korea (the ROK) is to adopt the policy of twin hedging as it needs both great powers, the United States and China, for its strategic stability and economic prosperity. For the successful implementation of the twin hedging policy, the South Korean government, as a way to deepen the economic engagement, has to precipitate and expand the economic cooperation between the ROK and China. Simultaneously, it has to strengthen the U.S.Korean alliance as a mode of soft balancing. For the United States, the diplomatic shift of Lee Myung-bak to the policy of twin hedging is, of course, a welcome development. But China seems to feel uncomfortable with this. Although China cannot object to the reinforcement of the U.S.Korean alliance, however, it is beginning to feel concerned about a potential strategic coalition between the United States and the ROK on the sensitive issues, including Seoul’s participation in the Missile Defense System and Proliferation Security Initiative, the ROK’s shift of its North Korean policies unfavorable to China, and the shift of conditions and roles of the American troops stationed in Korea. The success of the policy of twin hedging toward China depends on how carefully and competently the Lee Myung-bak administration convinces the Chinese government of the ROK’s strategic necessity for the hedging policy.
Abstract
With the inauguration of South Korea’s new president, Lee Myung-bak, Korea’s China policy is changing. Replacing the policy of tilting toward China pursued by his predecessor, Roh Moo-hyun, President Lee instead suggests a policy of hedging toward China. In general, the policy of hedging is composed of two different approaches, engagement and balancing. President Lee’s twin hedging emphasizes deep engagement and soft balancing toward China. The basic rationale of the Republic of Korea (the ROK) is to adopt the policy of twin hedging as it needs both great powers, the United States and China, for its strategic stability and economic prosperity. For the successful implementation of the twin hedging policy, the South Korean government, as a way to deepen the economic engagement, has to precipitate and expand the economic cooperation between the ROK and China. Simultaneously, it has to strengthen the U.S.Korean alliance as a mode of soft balancing. For the United States, the diplomatic shift of Lee Myung-bak to the policy of twin hedging is, of course, a welcome development. But China seems to feel uncomfortable with this. Although China cannot object to the reinforcement of the U.S.Korean alliance, however, it is beginning to feel concerned about a potential strategic coalition between the United States and the ROK on the sensitive issues, including Seoul’s participation in the Missile Defense System and Proliferation Security Initiative, the ROK’s shift of its North Korean policies unfavorable to China, and the shift of conditions and roles of the American troops stationed in Korea. The success of the policy of twin hedging toward China depends on how carefully and competently the Lee Myung-bak administration convinces the Chinese government of the ROK’s strategic necessity for the hedging policy.
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