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The Resilience of the U.S.-Australia Alliance: Does a (Potential) China Threat Provide a Rationale for the Alliance?

유현정|박재적
한국국방연구원 (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses)|2015.12|The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis|제27권 제4호|pp. 417-434|DOI 10.22883/kjda.2015.27.4.001

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키워드

China threatregional orderANZUSU.S.-Australia allianceIndo- Pacific

초록

Despite potentially significant differences between an American superpower’s andan Australian middle power’s global and regional interests and strategies, the U.S.-Australia alliance has remained resilient. Moreover, Australia has recently been verycooperative with the U.S. deployment of its military assets on Australian soil. Whatlies behind this intriguing set of circumstances in alliance relations? To address thisquestion, this article begins by providing a historical overview to show that the U.S.-Australia alliance is resilient despite the lack of a mutually perceived threat. Then,this article criticizes the argument that the U.S.-Australia alliance continues becauseit is insurance against potential military threats, especially against potential Chinesethreats. First, the likelihood of a “fundamental” attack on the Australian homelandis very slim. Moreover, the ANZUS accord lacks a formal mechanism that triggersan automatic U.S. involvement in the way that NATO’s Article Five mandates sucha U.S. response in Europe. Second, currently the American and Australian threatperceptions regarding China vary. Canberra entertains less fear of a “rising China”than does Washington. Instead, this article provides order-centric rationales forretaining and strengthening the U.S.-Australia alliance, and in that context itanalyzes the recent development of the alliance’s military aspects, including thedeployment of U.S. Marines in Darwin on a rotational basis.

Abstract

Despite potentially significant differences between an American superpower’s andan Australian middle power’s global and regional interests and strategies, the U.S.-Australia alliance has remained resilient. Moreover, Australia has recently been verycooperative with the U.S. deployment of its military assets on Australian soil. Whatlies behind this intriguing set of circumstances in alliance relations? To address thisquestion, this article begins by providing a historical overview to show that the U.S.-Australia alliance is resilient despite the lack of a mutually perceived threat. Then,this article criticizes the argument that the U.S.-Australia alliance continues becauseit is insurance against potential military threats, especially against potential Chinesethreats. First, the likelihood of a “fundamental” attack on the Australian homelandis very slim. Moreover, the ANZUS accord lacks a formal mechanism that triggersan automatic U.S. involvement in the way that NATO’s Article Five mandates sucha U.S. response in Europe. Second, currently the American and Australian threatperceptions regarding China vary. Canberra entertains less fear of a “rising China”than does Washington. Instead, this article provides order-centric rationales forretaining and strengthening the U.S.-Australia alliance, and in that context itanalyzes the recent development of the alliance’s military aspects, including thedeployment of U.S. Marines in Darwin on a rotational basis.

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