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The Civil War in Syria in View of the Iranian Challenge in the Middle East: An Israeli Perspective

Farago Niv
한국국방연구원 (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses)|2019.09|The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis|제31권 제3호|pp. 437-455|DOI 10.22883/kjda.2019.31.3.007

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Russiaconflictpolicynuclearcivil warIranIsraelSyriastrikeTrump

초록

This article examines the civil war in Syria and Iran’s military buildup in that country through the lens of senior Israeli politicians, military ofcers, and security pundits. Most of them agree that the Netanyahu government’s policy of striking Iran–linked targets in Syria hard while encouraging Europe to impose, like the United States, debilitating sanctions on Iran has severely damaged the ayatollahs’ plans. By interrupting Iranian efforts to establish a Hezbollah-like force in Syria and equip it with precision-guided missiles, Israeli policy has also decreased, some pundits believe, the likelihood of regional war. However, this article suggests that although Israel’s policy has hindered Iranian entrenchment in Syria, the danger of regional war has increased. Debilitating sanctions could cause Iran to discard the 2015 nuclear deal, thereby provoking an Israeli strike on its nuclear installations, and increasingly bolder strikes in Syria may spur the ayatollahs to retaliate harshly. Reliant upon Iran to secure Assad’s victory, but determined to deny the ayatollahs control over Syria, Russia is allowing Israeli strikes to continue as it rehabilitates Assad’s forces and rearms them with advanced weaponry. This weaponry, including S-300 defense systems that threaten Israeli planes, could embolden Syria to attempt recapturing the Golan Heights in the future.

Abstract

This article examines the civil war in Syria and Iran’s military buildup in that country through the lens of senior Israeli politicians, military ofcers, and security pundits. Most of them agree that the Netanyahu government’s policy of striking Iran–linked targets in Syria hard while encouraging Europe to impose, like the United States, debilitating sanctions on Iran has severely damaged the ayatollahs’ plans. By interrupting Iranian efforts to establish a Hezbollah-like force in Syria and equip it with precision-guided missiles, Israeli policy has also decreased, some pundits believe, the likelihood of regional war. However, this article suggests that although Israel’s policy has hindered Iranian entrenchment in Syria, the danger of regional war has increased. Debilitating sanctions could cause Iran to discard the 2015 nuclear deal, thereby provoking an Israeli strike on its nuclear installations, and increasingly bolder strikes in Syria may spur the ayatollahs to retaliate harshly. Reliant upon Iran to secure Assad’s victory, but determined to deny the ayatollahs control over Syria, Russia is allowing Israeli strikes to continue as it rehabilitates Assad’s forces and rearms them with advanced weaponry. This weaponry, including S-300 defense systems that threaten Israeli planes, could embolden Syria to attempt recapturing the Golan Heights in the future.

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