The Philippines Hedging between the United States and China: Is the Biden Administration Tipping the Balance?
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Since late 2016, the Philippine and U.S. military establishments have effectively circumvented the crisis in the two countries’ alliance stemming from the Duterte Administration’s appeasement policy toward China. This appeasement policy was designed to foster closer diplomatic and economic relations with China and to distance the Philippines from the United States and its allies (Japan and Australia) relative to the South China Sea dispute. Despite the refocusing of the alliance agenda from external defense and maritime security to counter-terrorism and HADR, the U.S. military succeeded in strengthening the pro-American elements in the Philippine government and the AFP and averted the crisis. This was evidenced by the resumption of warfighting scenarios in the 2019 Balikatan exercises, and Manila’s outrage over the persistent Chinese aggression in the South China Sea. In February 2020, however, President Duterte unilaterally abrogated the 1999 Philippines–U.S. Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA). This move triggered another crisis in the alliance. Recently, the Philippines and the United States adopted the November 16, 2021 Joint Vision for a 21st Century United States–Philippines Partnership which reaffirmed their commitment to a security relationship between sovereign equals despite President Duterte’s ambivalent attitude towards the alliance. Its urgent task is to ensure that the Philippine–U.S. alliance remains intact, and vibrant in the face of the changing nature of the 21st century Indo–Pacific region.
Abstract
Since late 2016, the Philippine and U.S. military establishments have effectively circumvented the crisis in the two countries’ alliance stemming from the Duterte Administration’s appeasement policy toward China. This appeasement policy was designed to foster closer diplomatic and economic relations with China and to distance the Philippines from the United States and its allies (Japan and Australia) relative to the South China Sea dispute. Despite the refocusing of the alliance agenda from external defense and maritime security to counter-terrorism and HADR, the U.S. military succeeded in strengthening the pro-American elements in the Philippine government and the AFP and averted the crisis. This was evidenced by the resumption of warfighting scenarios in the 2019 Balikatan exercises, and Manila’s outrage over the persistent Chinese aggression in the South China Sea. In February 2020, however, President Duterte unilaterally abrogated the 1999 Philippines–U.S. Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA). This move triggered another crisis in the alliance. Recently, the Philippines and the United States adopted the November 16, 2021 Joint Vision for a 21st Century United States–Philippines Partnership which reaffirmed their commitment to a security relationship between sovereign equals despite President Duterte’s ambivalent attitude towards the alliance. Its urgent task is to ensure that the Philippine–U.S. alliance remains intact, and vibrant in the face of the changing nature of the 21st century Indo–Pacific region.
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