North Korea’s Space Militarization and Foresight of Security Dilemma on the Korean Peninsula

Abstract

North Korea is intensifying its space development efforts, including satellite reconnaissance launches and the advancement of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) technology. Despite North Korea’s assertion that its space development is for peaceful purposes, the international community considers it a military-oriented endeavor. This study defines “space militarization” not merely as the military use of space technology, but as a complex phenomenon that can serve both deterrent and provocative roles depending on the strategic context. To analyze this, we examine the phenomenon by exploring existing security dilemma theory, the offense-defense balance theory, and nuclear posture optimization models. We also consider the dual-use nature of satellite technology, which may contribute to deterrence stability while simultaneously increasing strategic ambiguity. We present four scenarios forecasting future security dilemmas on the Korean Peninsula. Our findings suggest that, although certain dual-use technologies may reduce misperception and support deterrence, the overall trend of North Korea’s space militarization is likely to exacerbate the security dilemma. We recommend establishing global space governance and developing comprehensive space policies, laws, and institutions to effectively manage these emerging challenges.