강대국 충돌과 중간국의 외교적 선택: 파키스탄 외교전략의 재구성과 함의
Clash of Great Powers and Pakistan’s Foreign Policy as a Geopolitical Middle Ground State
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본고는 지정학적으로 강대국(Great power) 또는 강대국의 특성을 지닌 거대 세력권이 충돌하는 단층대에 위치한 국가를 ‘중간국’으로 정의하고, 중간국 외교전략의 특징을 보여주는 사례로서 파키스탄의 외교를 분석하였다. 파키스탄은 1947년 독립 이후 ‘온건한 이슬람국가’를 지향하며 독자적 외교정책을 추진하고자 했다. 하지만 이슬람과 힌두(인도), 미국과 공산권(러시아, 중국), 미국과 극단적 이슬람(알카에다와 탈레반)이 충돌하는 불안정한 지정학적 단층대에 위치하여, 단층대가 활성화될 때 극심한 대외전략적 딜레마를 겪는 한편 국내 대표적인 이해집단인 군부, 이슬람, 그리고 지방 민족주의 세력의 작동에 따라 외교정책에 부침을 겪어왔다. 이 연구는 파키스탄의 외교적 선택을 이해하는데 도움이 되고, 나아가 활성화되고 있는 단층대에 위치한 다른 중간국의 외교전략에도 시사점을 제시할 수 있을 것이다.
Abstract
This study defined states that occupy the ‘fault zone’ between Great powers or other such forces displaying the characteristics of a great power as ‘an intermediate state’ and analyzed Pakistan’s foreign policy as a case of foreign relations strategies utilized by intermediate states. Pakistan has pursued an autonomous foreign policy whilst attempting to present itself as a ‘moderate Islamic state’ since its independence in 1947. However, due to its relatively limited national power vis-à-vis India, Pakistan has utilized various strategies such as bandwagoning based on realism, hedging, and balancing. Pakistan is located in the geopolitical fault zone characterized by instability where multiple conflicts are simultaneously occurring between an Islamic zone versus a Hindu zone(India), between the United States and the Socialist zone(Russian and China), and between the United States and an Radical Islam(Al-Queda and Taliban). Therefore, Pakistan has gone through extreme changes in foreign policy conditions whenever the fault zone was activated; at the same time, it experienced slight adjustments to its foreign policies according to the dynamics and activities of main interest groups within Pakistan such as the military, Islamic groups, and local powers. In other words, situated in the multi-layered geopolitical fault zone, Pakistan’s foreign policy has oscillated as conflicts between multiple zones ensued and the character of main interest groups changed. This study will help better understand Pakistan’s foreign policy; further, it hopes to offer implications valid for implementing foreign policies of other intermediate states placed on the fault lines that are being activated.
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