독재정권 몰락의 급작성과 북한 급변사태에 대한 이론적 검토
The Logic of the Sudden Collapse of Dictatorship and its Implications for North Korean Breakdown
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혁명은 거대 다수의 조정의 결과이다. 다수의 조정은 순차적으로 이루어진다. 우연한 계기에 일정 수 이상의 임계 대중의 선택은 다른 참여자의 선택을 유도한다. 그리고 이는 다시 더 많은 이의 참여로 이어진다. 이 되먹임의 결과 시민 대다수의 참여와 쏠림으로 독재가 무너진다. 이 모든 과정이 마무리 될 때까지 혁명을 둘러싼 불확실성은 사라지지 않는다. 북한 정권이 “우리식 사회주의”의 고수 대신 새로운 발전 목표를 설정할 경우 이는 위험 감수형 개혁으로 이어질 가능성이 높다. 개혁의 진퇴 속에서 북한 주민은 빈번하게 손실을 경험하면서 정권에 대해 보다 분명한 적대감을 지닐 것이며 엘리트의 갈등이 노골화될 소지가 크다. 이 상태에서 자신의 혁명적 의지를 새롭게 자각한 임계 대중이 출현하고 쏠림의 상호작용이 발생하면서 북한의 급변사태가 발생할 수 있다.
Abstract
The interdependence of choices among heterogeneous individuals and positive feedback of initiatives by critical mass cause the unexpected sudden collapse of dictatorship. In North Korea the totalitarian surveilance and the escape of brave individuals out of North Korea have prevented the formation of critical mass. As long as the North Korean ruling elites cling to the status quo, there will be little possibility for regime collapse. However, the direction of regime trajectory has changed since the crisis in the late 1990s. The difficulty of cult of personality, the death of Kim Jung Il, and the military-first-line lead to the institutionalization of collective decision making. At the same time, the North Korean regime has started to set the higher goal than the protection of Juche socialism, which makes risk-taking policies likely to be adopted in order to avoid the sure loss and failure. As a result, reform processes may take a stop-and-go style. The experience of frequent losses would intensify the feeling of frustration among North Korean inhabitants and political polarization of elites over risk-taking policies would lead to political polarization and paralysis of state apparatus. These changes, if happens, would lead to collective action for regime change.
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