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동맹 내 핵확산에 대한 미국의 설득과 강압 및 수용: 핵무장 예방을 위한 미국의 대(對)한국 강압 가능성 검토

Suasion, Coercion, and Accommodation by the United States Against Allied Proliferation: Will the U.S. Coerce South Korea to Prevent its Nuclearization?

이대한|로버트 켈리
세종연구소 (The Sejong Institute)|2024.11|국가전략 (National Strategy)|제30권 제4호|pp. 61-94|DOI 10.35390/sejong.30.4.202411.003

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한국미국South KoreaUnited StatesNuclear Weapons핵무기핵확산Proliferation동맹 강압Alliance Coercion
주제분류정치외교학

초록

그간 한국에서 제기된 자체 핵무장 찬성 논리가 여러 측면에서 충분한 타당성을 갖추고있다. 이에 본 논문은 먼저 한국의 핵무장론을 뒷받침하는 두 가지 핵심 논리로서 1) 북한의 핵개발과 대륙간탄도미사일로 인해 도전받는 미국의 한국 방어 공약, 2) 트럼프와 공화당의 주기적인 동맹 방기 위협을 소개한다. 또한 미국 내 비확산 진영이 반론으로 제기하는 1) 핵확산금지조약 탈퇴에 따른 비확산 체제의 손상, 2) 우발적 핵 사고 가능성 증대, 3) 역내 핵 도미노 현상 촉발, 4) 북한의 비핵화의지 약화를 다룬다. 이어서 본 논문은 이러한 반대 근거의 논리적 결함이 상당하므로, 미국은 한국의 핵무장론을 억누르기 위해 제재 기반 강압을 고려하게 된다고 주장한다. 그러나 오랜 동맹국을 강압하는 행위는 한미동맹과 미국의 신뢰성에 부정적 영향을 끼친다고 본다. 따라서 미국이 핵무장에 대한 동맹국의 주권적 결정을 존중 및 수용하는 것이가장 바람직하다고 결론짓는다. 그리고 이러한 수용은 강압이 초래할 핵 이중성 문제와 동맹국 내에서의 반발을 완화하며 중국과의 경쟁에도 도움이 될 것으로 본다.

Abstract

South Korea’s strategic nuclearization logic is plausible. The paper first presents two security-based arguments for South Korean nuclearization: 1) The credibility of the U.S. alliance commitment to South Korea is increasingly challenged by North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons atop intercontinental ballistic missiles. 2) The American Republican party under Donald Trump regularly threatens alliance abandonment of US partners. The paper next presents four US counterarguments to South Korean nuclearization, clustering around nonproliferation concerns: 1) South Korea’s withdrawal from the Nonproliferation Treaty might fatally damage the Treaty. 2) South Korean nuclearization would create yet more possibilities of accidents and mishaps. 3) South Korean nuclearization might catalyze a regional nuclear cascade. 4) South Korean nuclearization would reduce North Korea’s willingness to denuclearize. The paper argues that these counterarguments are flawed, leaving America only the option of sanctions coercion to reduce South Korean nuclear interest. However, coercing a long-time ally would undermine the ROK-US alliance and the US credibility. The paper thus concludes that the United States should respect and accommodate an ally’s sovereign decision on nuclearization. It further argues that accommodation defuses charges of nuclear duplicity incurred by intra-alliance threats, which serves America’s interest in its contention with China.

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